Chief Investment Officer
Summary: The Fed just made one of its most important moves in responding to the fallout from the Covid19 crisis by announcing what amounts to a backstop of the US financial system, with new purchases aimed at addressing the massive credit crunch in particular.
The US Federal Reserve just announced a massive new programme to backstop the US financial system, by far the most important move yet by the Fed to bring relief. The important thing here is that the Fed is ensuring that the marginal cost of capital is anchored after the recent explosion in credit spreads - hence the focus on credit-impacted instruments in its new menu of asset purchases.
This is the first step in controlling yields all along the US treasury yield curve - full yield-curve-control is likely forthcoming. US equity futures and long treasuries were heavily bid in immediate reaction to the initiative.
The new FOMC statement.
Details of the new plan, which includes unlimited QE, purchase of commercial MBS, corporate debt and more.
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
