Summary: US and European equity futures trade mixed following Tuesday's US technology stocks led weakness after consumer confidence dropped to a four-month low and the expectations index fell below a level that in the past has signaled an incoming recession. The S&P 500 dropped to a June low as the Fed’s higher for long message drove US 10-year yields to a fresh 16-year high while the Dollar index reached a fresh year-to-date high. Overnight equities in Hong Kong gained with those on the mainland cooling after sharp gains earlier as China reported improved industrial profits Crude oil prices remain elevated adding to inflation concerns while gold trades soft near $1900.
The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.
Equities: The relentless rise in long-end US Treasury yields saw selling accelerate across US stocks on Tuesday with the S&P 500 dropping 1.5% to hit the lowest level since June 7. Technology stocks, which led the rally earlier this year, has been challenged all month on concerns the Fed’s higher for longer message is starting to hurt consumer confidence. A message that was strengthened after the Consumer Expectations Index declined below 80, the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. The S&P 500 will be looking for support around 4,200, the 50% correction of the March to July rally and the 200-day moving average.
FX: The DXY dollar index broke higher to fresh YTD highs, having taken out the 105.80 resistance, as long-end Treasury yields continued to rise. Data remained soft, helping keep the short-end yields capped but Fed member Kashkari, who is usually a dove, noted he puts a 40% probability on a scenario where Fed will have to raise rates significantly higher to beat inflation and a 60% probability of a soft landing. USDCAD rose to 1.3528 while GBPUSD slid below 1.2150 and next target at 1.20. EURUSD plunged further to lows of 1.0556 while USDJPY is hovering close to the 150-mark as verbal jawboning continues to have little effect.
Commodities: Crude oil remains rangebound with tight market conditions, as seen through the highest premium for near-term barrels in more than a year, being offset by a stronger dollar and the general risk-off tone. API inventory data showed a crude build of 1.6m barrels vs expectations of a 1.7m drop. Gold trades below $1900 on continued dollar and yield strength with focus on $1885 support while China property market concerns sees copper traded near a four-month low. Meanwhile in agriculture, El Nino has been confirmed, and it could be a strong one, potentially impacting food inflation from rising risks of droughts in Southeast Asia, Australia and Brazil-Columbia.
Fixed Income. The Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer message reverberates through higher long-term US Treasury yields. Unless there is a sign that the job market is weakening significantly, or that the economy is slowing down quickly, long-term yields will continue to soar. With 10-year yields breaking above 4.5% and selling pressure continuing to mount through an increase in coupon supply, quantitative tightening and less foreign investors demand, it’s not unlikely to see yields to continue to rise towards 5% until something breaks. This week, our attention turns to US PCE numbers and Europe CPI data and US Treasury auctions. Yesterday’s 2-year notes auction received good demand while offering the highest auction yield for that tenor since 2006. Yet, our focus is on the belly of the yield curve with the Treasury selling 5- and 7-year notes today and tomorrow. If demand is poor, it might mean that the yield curve is poised to bear-steepen further. Overall, we continue to favour short-term maturities and quality.
Volatility: The CBOE Volatility Index jumped 2 on Tuesday to close at 18.94%, a four-month high after the underlying SPX index lost 1.5% to settle at the lowest level since June
Macro: US consumer confidence fell for a second consecutive month to 103.0 from 108.7 (upwardly revised from 106.1) and beneath the expected 105.5. Present Situation Index marginally rose to 147.1 (prev. 146.7), while the Expectations Index declined further to 73.7 (prev. 83.3), falling back below 80 - the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Inflation expectations for the 12 months ahead were unchanged at 5.7% in September. New home sales in the US fell 8.7% to 675k from 739k (upwardly revised from 714k), shy of the consensus 700k. Fed's Kashkari has published an essay where he says there is a 60% chance of a soft landing with a 40% chance the Fed will have to hike 'significantly higher'.
In the news: FTC Sues Amazon, Alleging Illegal Online-Marketplace Monopoly (WSJ), Foreign brands including Tesla to face scrutiny as part of EU probe into China car subsidies (FT), Senate leaders agree on a short-term spending bill, aiming to avert a shutdown, extending government funding until November 17, pending House approval (CNN). What ‘peak oil’ will mean for China (FT), Americans finally start to feel the sting from the Fed’s rate hikes (WSJ), Exclusive: German economic institutes forecast 0.6% GDP contraction this year – sources (Reuters)
Technical analysis: S&P 500 downtrend support at 4,200. Nasdaq 100 support at 14,254. DAX downtrend support at 14,933. EURUSD downtrend support at 1.05. GBPUSD below support at 1.2175, oversold, next support 1.2012. USDJPY uptrend stretched but could reach 150. Gold bearish could drop to 1,870. Brent and WTI Crude oil resuming uptrend. US 10-year T-yields uptrend expect minor correction
Macro events: US Durable Goods Orders (Aug) est –0.5% vs –5.2% prior (1230 GMT), Feds Kashkari Speaks on CNBC (1200 GMT), EIA’s Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report (1430 GMT)
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
