Chart of the Week: USDCNH
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: Our 'Macro Chartmania' series collects Macrobond data and focuses on a single chart chosen for its relevance.
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Market tensions are increasing this morning following Trump’s threat to use tariffs to “punish” China for the way it handled the coronavirus outbreak. Over the past two days, the blame game between Washington and Beijing has sharply intensified. China blasted the United States on coronavirus response while some U.S. officials spread rumors of Wuhan lab COVID-19 origination. As a result, the yuan offshore (CNH), which is the ultimate barometer for US-China trade war, is on high alert again. It is approaching a key technical resistance at 7.15. That level has become a line in the sand for investors all around the world and, if broken, it could signal that China is ready to let go further its currency which would have very negative implications for risk assets. A break would mean more contentious trade war on the top of the preexisting health and economic crisis and would induce a big move in the dollar and put negative pressure on equities and emerging market assets. At this time of the year, the classic rhyming investment adage argues you should sell before the summer. A further weakening in the Chinese yuan might finally be the reason for a market sell-off.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.