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Weekly FX Chartbook: UK data will be a test of GBP resilience

Forex 5 minutes to read
Charu Chanana 400x400
Charu Chanana

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  Broader markets continue to price in a more aggressive Fed but dollar still ended the week nearly unchanged despite a significant plunge in yields. This could partly be a result of haven demand as risks of Mideast conflict escalating are on watch, but also signals the less optimistic ex-US growth outlook. Macro and positioning data continues to point towards more GBP upside, and inflation and jobs data will be on watch.


15_FX_Weekly
Geopolitics can keep NOK and Gold in focus this week, and may also provide support to AUD after recent data has questioned whether less aggressive RBA rate cut pricing is justified.
15_FX_Momentum
Momentum suggests two-way action in the US dollar, but positive momentum building in precious metals amid a drop in yields and rising Mideast tensions.
15_FX_Positioning
Forex COT to the week of Jan 9 indicated an increase in USD net longs for asset managers and institutional investors, although aggregate short positions continued. Speculators covered short positions in CAD and AUD, while adding longs to GBP and JPY.
15_FX_G10 views

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