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CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 61% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX, or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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1806fxuM

Weekly FX Chartbook: Relative Fed and ECB policy messaging to matter more than absolute stances

Forex 5 minutes to read
Charu Chanana 400x400
Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Summary:  Heavy central bank week ahead with Fed, ECB, Bank of England and SNB scheduled to announce policy decisions. A hold is baked in for all, and commentaries, relative rather than absolute, will matter more for FX markets. USD could gain if soft-landing hopes are retained, and ECB is relatively more dovish. Yen also in focus as BOJ pivot bets could continue.

11_FX_Weekly
Yen outperformed last week on BOJ pivot bets, despite weekly gains in the US dollar after three consecutive weeks of decline. Gold performed poorly despite starting the week with a new record high amid the pushback to rate cut expectations, particularly after Friday's goldilocks NFP.
11_FX_Momentum
Largest negative momentum seen in EUR could be tested at the ECB meeting this week. Shift in momentum is the largest in precious metals and NZD with USD turning positive.
11_FX_Positioning
Forex COT to the week of Dec 5 indicates a turn in USD positioning to a net short from long for the first time since Sept 2023, largely driven by a shift in GBP positioning to a net long. EUR and AUD longs were added further, while JPY short was cut.
11_FX_G10

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