US dollar pares overnight gains

US dollar pares overnight gains

Forex
MO
Michael O’Neill

FX Trader, Loonieviews.net

The world was looking grim when New York traders turned on their screens. The US threat of another $200 billion in tariffs against China had spooked traders during the overnight session. President Trump’s blustering at the NATO conference didn’t help to reassure markets, either. 

However, Bank of France Governor and European Central Bank executive committee member Francois Villeroy managed to lift the shroud of gloom. All he said was that the ECB could raise rates “at the earliest through the summer of 2019.” Suddenly, EURUSD sellers became US dollar buyers, obviously preferring a long-term fantasy of Eurozone policy tightening over the short-term prospect of a full-blown trade war.

EURUSD rallied from 1.1698 to 1.1755, and the commodity currency bloc caught a minor bid. The rally got a bit of an assist from a 0.3% rise in US PPI. The intraday EURUSD uptrend is intact while prices are above 1.1705 with a break of resistance at 1.1790 extending gains to 1.1860.

USDJPY rallied despite the trade tensions but could break above resistance in the 111.40-111.60 area. A topside break would target 113.60 while a drop below 110.80 would lead to a retest of 110.20.

Wall Street was not impressed by ECB rate speculation preferring to focus on the more immediate risks posed by the US tariff plan. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 161.18 points while the S&P 500 sank 0.54% as of 13:50 GMT.

The Bank of Canada did not surprise anyone when it raised the overnight rate to 1.75% from 1.25%. The surprise was in the tone of the statement. It was hawkish. The bank expects the global economy to grow by about 3.75% in 2018 and said the Canadian economy was operating close to capacity, assuming 2.8% growth in Q2. The Monetary Policy Report press conference starts at 15:15 GMT . USDCAD, which had climbed to 1.3171 overnight and was sitting at 1.3135, when the statement was released, dropped to 1.30081. Support is at 1.3050 and 1.3005.

usdcad
USDCAD 4-hour chart. Source: Saxo Bank

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.