The G10 rundown
USD – the US dollar a safe haven if the US and China can’t piece together a de-escalation of the latest tariff threats from the US side by Friday.
EUR – the euro was rather resilient through the entire risk-off episode since the weekend – may be a function of reversal of positioning in general (large euro speculative short) during these episodes, particularly in carry trades.
JPY – tends to serves as the highest beta to risk appetite when things get rough – the 110.00 area in USDJPY the next technical level of note to the downside.
GBP – I don’t see how the market can draw strong enough conclusions on the outlook to sustain this latest attempt at a sterling rally. And I don’t see how prime minister Theresa May has the mandate to agree anything with anyone. Maximum uncertainty remains – could drag on sterling at these levels.
CHF – latest episode of risk off shows that CHF isn’t what it used to be in that department. Structural downside interest in the franc needs a breakout above 1.1500 in EURCHF.
AUD – RBA reluctant to do the deed and cut rates, but will be dragged to do so down the road – probably at the June meeting unless the China-linked news, from stimulus to a trade deal with the US, does the heavy lifting. Given the specific focus in the statement on employment data – the next jobs report will see an exaggerated reaction.
CAD – rather passive to the action as CAD offers lower beta to the risk-on, risk-off gyrations at the moment.
NZD – the RBNZ likely to do the deed tonight, given where expectations for a cut rate are and its recent dovish tilt. We like AUDNZD higher if so.
SEK – EURSEK reluctant to punch through higher, given we are at multi- year highs. A significant deterioration in risk appetite on concerns for the global outlook could see SEK weaker still.
NOK – a resistance line has developed in EURNOK around 9.80, but the recent rally has been so steep that it will take some doing to weaken the upside momentum. Next step will be the guidance from the Norges Bank on Thursday, with a dovish shift the risky one for adding NOK downside risk
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