Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: USDJPY, EURJPY GBPJPY and CHFJPY lower and there could be further downside to come
AUDJPY still holding up above support but for how long?
USDJPY has broken below support at around 149.20 thus breaking bearish out of its trading range to the 0.618 retracement at 147.60
RSI is testing the 40 threshold and if closing below USDJPY is likely to see continued selling down to the 0.786 retracement at 146.96, possibly to the key strong support at around 145.84
If USDJPY is being lifted back above 149.20 uptrend is likely to resume
EURJPY is testing support at around 160.97 and the 0.50 retracement at 160.90.
A break below is likely leading to further selling pressure to the 0.618 retracement at 160.23 possibly down to the 0.786 retracement at 159.28
However, the 55 DMA has crossed over the 100 and since they are both rising the underlying trend sentiment it bullish
RSI is also still showing positive sentiment AUDJPY still range bound 94.34-98.20. Breakout is needed for direction.
Bearish breakout is likely sending AUDJPY to the 0.618 retracement at 96.86.
A bullish breakout AUDJPY is resuming uptrend with potential to 99.70-100.11
GBPJPY sell-off is testing 0.50 retracement at 188.27 but could dip lower to the 0.618 at 187.55. However, a sell-off down to the 0.786 retracement at 186.53 should be ruled out. If GBPJPY is closing below
A close above 190 GBPJPY is likely to resume uptrend CHFJPY has broken bearish out its trading range and is currently below the 0.382 retracement. A move to the strong support at around 167.00 is very likely.
A close below 167 could fuel another round of selling down to the 0.618 retracement at 165.86, possibly down to the 0.786 retracement at 164.24
RSI is below 40 threshold supporting a continued bearish trend
To demolish this bearish picture at close back above 170 is necessary 2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.