Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: USDJPY testing key support at 147.30. Bounce back to resume uptrend or breaking lower?
EURJPY in correction phase. Could sell-off further before uptrend is likely to resume
AUDJPY moving in tight range between support and resistance levels. Check them out here
USDJPY is testing support at around 147.32. A close below could fuel a sell-off down to around 144.77 support level. The 100 DMA will offer some support around the 0.382 retracement at 146.30.
RSI showing negative sentiment is suggesting that scenario to play out. However, if USDJPY can avoid closing below 147.32 a bounce back to test the (now) resistance at 149.05.
Weekly chart USDJPY is still trading in a rising channel pattern with positive RSI and no divergence suggesting the past few days of bearish trading is merely just a correction.
EURJPY is in a correction phase that could take the cross down to test the4 lower rising trendline and the 0.618 retracement at 160.21
Positive RSI with nod divergence is indicating EURJPY is likely to resume uptrend after a correction. An uptrend that if 164.30 is taken out there is room up to around 170.
However, if EURJPY is closing below 157.65 a new bearish trend has been confirmedAUDJPY has been jumping to and rejected from several support and resistance levels past few weeks.
After being rejected at the 2022 peak at around 98.55 AUDJPY is now testing the support at 96.82.
A close below could send the pair down to strong support at around 95.85.
However, RSI is still showing positive sentiment indicating AUDJPY is likely to bounce back and have another attempt at breaking 98.55