Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
EURUSD has broken and closed above the 0.786 retracement, the 100 daily moving average and above the Ichimoku cloud.
At first, EURUSD was rejected at the key strong resistance at around 1.0885—it did spike a bit above though, but RSI closed yesterday above the 60 threshold confirming EURUSD is now in a bullish trend indicating EURUSD is likely to move higher in the coming days or weeks.
Another break above 1.0885 is likely to fuel a rally to 1.0950-1.0980.
Very short-term EURUSD could slide back to around 1.0825 before buyers probably come back trying to push EURUSD above 1.0885.
GBPUSD broke yesterday above the 0.786 retracement at 1.2622 to close above all moving averages.
GBPUSD is trading just below key resistance at around 1.2710 and has not yet closed above the cloud.
However, RSI closed above the 60 threshold, i.e., now showing positive sentiment supporting GBPUSD to break higher. A break above 1.2710 and a close above the cloud will pave the road higher towards 1.28, possibly to 1.29.