background image background image background image

NY Open: The Great Black Friday oil sale

Forex 4 minutes to read
Michael O’Neill

FX Trader,

Summary:  Black Friday is boosting US equities today, but trade war fears, oversupply, and the ever-present worry of global demand slippage have led to a fire sale on crude oil.

Today saw WTI drop to $50.63/barrel from a pre-New York opening level of $53.60/barrel. This came on thin markets, the China/US trade war and concerns that supply from rising US production and slowing global growth will outpace demand next year.

USDCAD took centre stage in New York due to the release of September Retail Sales and October Inflation reports. Inflation was a touch warmer than expected but the Retail Sales report was tepid. After the initial churn, prices returned to their opening level. USDCAD is trading with a positive bias in an upward channel, supported by ongoing oil price weakness. 

EURUSD is consolidating earlier losses from weaker than expected PMI data while GBPUSD is under pressure over UK politics. USDJPY slipped alongside a drop in US Treasury yields.

Wall Street opened in the red. Traders are reportedly spooked by the 2.21% drop in the Shanghai CSI 300 index and concerns ahead of next week’s Trump/Xi meeting. Free-falling oil prices are adding to the negative sentiment.

The week ahead looks promising for volatile trading. The EU Council debates the Brexit agreement draft and may generate some inflammatory headlines, and it should keep GBPUSD and EURUSD on high alert. Spanish officials are said to be less than enamoured with the draft and want a written promise of a veto over any future relations between the EU and Gibraltar.

The EU is embroiled in a budget dispute with Italy. Italy refuses to reduce the budget deficit of 2.4% of GDP, and the EU is threatening financial penalties. President Trump will hijack another G-20 summit meeting. The Argentina get-together in Argentina will be overshadowed by the Trump/Jinping meeting as the US and China work to resolve their trade issues.

Traders will have a lot of quality economic data to digest as well. US Q3 GDP data are released Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee minutes are released Thursday, and Eurozone CPI is due Friday.

USDCAD, source: Saxo Bank


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.