The G-10 rundown
USD – on a strong NFP release today, we assume more of the same from this market, though at some point, US long yields breaking higher will be a gamechanger. In the meantime, this market would seem rather poorly set up for an ugly downside surprise today after so many positive data points and aggressive risk seeking this week.
EUR – the EURUSD struggling below the 1.1125-50 pivot area and keeping the needle pointed lower for a test of the next important level at 1.1000 if the US data cooperates with the USD bulls today.
JPY – as noted above, USDJPY the first major USD pair to trade at the cup of multi-month highs and we look at the US treasury market for confirmation if strong US payrolls today lead to a break higher.
GBP – sterling found support ahead of 1.3000 in GBPUSD, but that pair continues to coil within the range and could see a run on stops below 1.3000 or even below the nominal recent 1.2905 area lows on a fresh surge in the US dollar. EURGBP looks lifeless, suggesting traders are unwilling to take a stand here.
CHF – EURCHF trading heavy, but very constrained ranges and SNB leaning against.
AUD – all has gone quiet and AUD showing little reaction to data after the AiG services survey overnight saw a sharp dip. AUDUSD has reversed the recent rally move, but failing to show renewed momentum so far – and AUD weakening looking overdone in some of the crosses.
CAD – again, a pivotal day and price region for USDCAD as the 1.3000 area is the battleground ahead of jobs data. A move above 1.3150 cements the recent reversal from sub-1.30 levels.
NZD – a decent backup in AUDNZD, which still needs a leg higher to neutralize the recent sell-off.
SEK – the krona perhaps not liking the weak EUR and EURSEK may stay in limbo in the higher zone until we get a stronger policy signal from the EU or Sweden or both.
NOK – the EURNOK move has stalled out – not sure what the market looking for here as risk appetite backdrop looks supportive while crude oil developments only look negative due to the recent geopolitically inspired spike.
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 1330 – Canada Dec. Net Change in Employment
- 1330 – Canada Dec. Unemployment Rate
- 1330 – US Dec. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
- 1330 – US Dec. Unemployment Rate
- 1330 – US Dec. Average Hourly Earnings