The G-10 rundown
USD – the G3 currencies all weak as the market in a celebratory mood on this latest move. We’re a bit uncertain how much more the market can wring out of the US-China news, but certainly not willing to stand in the way.
EUR – EURUSD thrown a rope just as it was poking to new local lows this morning by the US-China trade news, but the single currency looks weak elsewhere – note the action in EURAUD – breaking down into an interesting area here.
JPY – again, we note the interesting modest rally attempt overnight that was independent of other influences before the US-China trade deal news reversed the move. If long US treasuries sustain a further rise, JPY likely to remain under pressure.
GBP – No easy way to deliver a message on the policy outlook in today’s Bank of England inflation report – UK recession incoming, but great hopes for a post-Brexit rebound. Sterling sideways.
CHF – the franc seems inert relative to the EUR despite this morning’s news. Is this a sign that the euro is becoming popular as a funding currency, turning past EURCHF correlations a bit on their head?
AUD – the Aussie absorbing the good news on trade, and another strong Trade Balance overnight reminds of the remarkable shift in recent years. Hmm, which to outperform, EURAUD downside or AUDUSD upside?
CAD – The US-China news this morning came just as USDCAD confronting key 1.3200 area resistance. Whether the positive mood on today’s headlines sustains and tomorrow’s Canada jobs report the deciding factors for next steps.
NZD – weaker wage and employment data this week still the excuse for seeing NZD lower versus AUD, though rate spread development between the two countries have been modest and are merely in the middle of the two-month range. Watching the range high here at 1.0840 in AUDNZD.
SEK – housing prices rose again for the year – and a large budget surplus reported for October – time to spend some of that money, Sweden. EURSEK posting new local lows, but a bigger level just ahead here at 10.61-60.
NOK – EURNOK probing new local lows and the risk melt-up should support NOK at the margin as NOK longs have to lean against seasonality headwinds. More profound reversal needs to see the pair take out 10.05-00.
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 1200 – UK Nov. Bank of England Super Thursday
- 1230 – UK BoE’s Carney Press Conference
- 1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
- 1530 – US Weekly Natural Gas Storage
- 2000 – US Sep. Consumer Credit