The G-10 rundown
USD – interesting to note the USD easing lower versus the EUR and JPY this morning as risk off washes over markets – the greenback may be vulnerable against everything save for EM in the event of a meltdown in US megacap stocks.
EUR – the selling looking a bit overdone and consolidation risk high, though questionable whether any consolidation can engineer a technical reversal. Rather supportive flash Feb. PMI’s out of Europe this morning.
JPY – the yen sell-off cut hard and deep and is particularly interesting now that we have transitioned suddenly to a market backdrop since yesterday that is normally as supportive as possible of the yen – a great test of whether we are witnessing a regime shift unfolding here.
GBP – sterling pulled back from the brink versus the USD after punching to a new multi-month low, but too early to call this a recovery.
CHF – the franc impressing in ignoring the JPY move entirely – could risk finding a stronger bid still if the current risk off deepens. Note that USDCHF is turning lower after a look close to the 200-day moving average.
AUD – the weak job data this week knocked the Aussie to new lows versus the USD – chief risk to AUD bears is one of positioning here, but taking the break lower at face value unless reversed with a move back above 0.6700.
CAD – unrealistically resilient given the backdrop and now oil turning lower again – watching top of range in USDCAD at 1.3300+ as possible catalyst for more gains. Canadian Retail Sales figures out later today
NZD – kiwi and the Aussie following one another in lock step – rate spread offers a bit of support, but price action is inert.
SEK – EURSEK valiantly avoiding the upside swing zone of 10.60-65 and getting a modicum of support from bump in EU PMI’s this morning.
NOK – downside focus for EURNOK is 10.00 and would need the market to shift back into a more positive stance on the outlook for global growth, i.e., fading coronavirus fears and firmer oil prices.
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 1330 – Canada Dec. Retail Sales
- 1445 – US Flash Feb. Markit PMI
- 1500 – US Jan. Existing Home Sales
- 1515 – US Fed’s Brainard (Voter) to Speak
- 1700 – ECB’s Lane to Speak
- 1830 – US Fed’s Mester and Clarida (Both voters) Speaking
- Saturday: US Nevada Democratic Primary