COP29: Does It Really Make a Difference?

This year marks the 29th edition of the Conference of the Parties (“COP”), the United Nations conference dedicated to addressing climate change by assessing progress and making decisions on climate action. Scheduled to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 24, 2024, the choice of location has sparked debate. Similar to last year’s conference in Dubai, many are questioning the implications of hosting the event in an oil-producing country, with critics arguing that this raises potential conflicts of interest.

What has COP accomplished over the years

COP is a significant global event that brings together a diverse array of participants, including influential decision-makers. Over the years, COP has achieved remarkable milestones:

• COP 21: Paris Agreement where countries committed to limit global warming to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to restrict the rise to 1.5°C.
• COP 26: Nations reaffirmed their focus on the 1.5°C target, recognizing that the 2°C goal would lead to severe consequences, including extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and ecosystem disruptions.
• COP 27: The establishment of a loss and damage fund, aimed at compensating developing countries for the impacts they face due to the actions of more industrialized nations, which bear greater responsibility for the climate crisis.
• COP 28: Nations agreed to transition away from fossil fuels and triple the world’s renewable energy capacity.

While these milestones are significant, it’s crucial to recognize the gap between aspirations and reality, which can at times impede progress. A striking illustration of this is the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, which has driven gas prices to record highs. Consequently, many countries, including in the EU, have turned to seeking new fossil fuel sources. This shift represents a significant obstacle to the ambitions of limiting global temperatures to 1.5°C and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

What is the current climate situation

Well not so good. The first Global Stocktake at COP 28 revealed concerning trends, indicating that we are not on track to limit global warming to 1.5°C. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global temperatures are currently about 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels, with projections suggesting we could reach 1.5°C by 2040. The year 2023 was recorded as the warmest year for both land and ocean, and greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, despite the need for a reduction of approximately 7% per year to stay within the 1.5°C limit.