Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Chief Investment Strategist
President Trump’s AI Action Plan is rapidly taking shape. Last week, the administration moved from broad vision to execution by signing three executive orders on infrastructure acceleration, export promotion, and ideological neutrality. Together, they signal that the U.S. is shifting from AI adoption to industrial-scale deployment.
Here’s what the orders aim to do:
Taken together, these moves revive a familiar American playbook: reduce red tape, push growth, and let private companies scale fast with the help of government resources. This also reframes how investors might think about AI exposure. The spotlight is moving away from front-end models and toward the foundational layers – chips, compute, power, cloud, and cybersecurity.
What follows is a playbook for positioning across this evolving AI value chain, in a policy-heavy environment where private capital may play a pivotal role alongside government funding.
In this AI gold rush, chips are the shovels. From GPUs and memory to logic and interconnects, semiconductors are the enabling layer beneath every AI breakthrough.
Trump’s export-led strategy promotes full-package AI deployment—including chips, compute infrastructure, and software. This favors players who own both design and manufacturing, while boosting demand for fabrication equipment.
Strategically, this layer sits at the intersection of industrial policy, supply chain security, and global trade. That makes it a long-cycle theme with both domestic buildout and foreign demand tailwinds.
As AI scales, data must move faster and more efficiently. Networking is no longer back-office plumbing, it is the strategic infrastructure enabling low-latency AI performance including training, inference, and real-time deployment.
Once chips are made, the challenge becomes moving data quickly between compute clusters, storage, and users. This infrastructure layer is critical in both training large models and deploying them at scale.
Energy is the bottleneck for AI scale. The surge in data center demand is already stressing grids, and AI workloads are only getting more power-hungry.
Trump’s emphasis on energy independence may funnel capital into new-generation utilities and resilient baseload providers.
Two key segments to watch:
Nuclear power, especially through small modular reactors (SMRs), offers a long-duration solution for 24/7 clean energy – something hyperscalers are increasingly evaluating.
Cloud platforms are the distribution backbone of AI. They host model training, storage, and delivery at scale – effectively becoming the operating systems of the AI economy.
Trump’s export strategy encourages bundling the entire U.S. AI stack, from chips to cloud. Cloud players who control compute platforms, AI services, and data pipelines may benefit from government-backed expansion and overseas promotion.
This is also where we could see repackaged CHIPS Act-style funding redirected toward politically favorable outcomes like public-private partnerships for sovereign compute.
The front end of AI is where value gets realized. And in Trump’s vision, how AI is built and deployed matters just as much as what it does.
With a push for “ideologically neutral” AI in government procurement, enterprise platforms that offer transparency, auditability, and robust security may gain an edge. But beyond politics, this layer represents the most scalable delivery of real-world AI use cases across government, defense, and business.
This layer has recurring revenue potential and sits closest to the user—benefiting from both federal alignment and the growing need for secure, compliant, AI-integrated workflows.
Trump’s AI plan reflects a classic U.S. industrial growth cycle, fueled by deregulation, public funding, and geopolitical competition. For investors, this shifts the narrative away from just AI use cases to AI capacity. Investors thinking long term may consider the full stack of enablers including chips, power, networking, software, and security.
Rather than concentrated bets, a layered exposure strategy offers diversification across:
This is a shift from AI hype to AI infrastructure, and that’s where durable value may lie.