Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Novo Nordisk gapping lower trading around key support. Long term uptrend in jeopardy
A.P. Moeller Maersk in the process of unfolding Shoulder-Head-Shoulder top and reversal potential. Closing in on key support
Dansk Bank forming a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern currently testing key Neckline support. Stock likely to break lower
Novo Nordisk Bearish break out of Triangle with a bang. Opened sharply lower after earnings announcement, just below support at around 1,060. At the time of writing Novo is back above and RSI is bouncing from 40 threshold. If Novo can close above 1.060 buyers are likely to try closing the opening gap from today.
Medium-term the trend is still up but a correction is looming. If Novo breaks below the steep rising upper trendline a larger correction down to the Consolidation area between 976 and 896.50 could be seen
Medium- to Longer term (Monthly chart ) there is divergence on RSI Uptrend is quite stretched but the chart has not yet formed a top and reversal pattern.
At the time of writing Novo is forming a Bearish Engulfing top and reversal pattern on the monthly time period. If May closes below 1,095 i.e., below April opening price this pattern will be confirmed and Novo could expect a larger correction.
A correction that is likely to test the lower rising trendline. A break below could lead to further selling down to 854.
However, if Novo is closing May above 1,095 the long-term uptrend is likely to continue. An RSI close above the horizontal dashed line will cancel the divergence and long term higher highs are in the cards.
A.P. Moller Maersk B has been very volatile since Dividend pay outs. Now once again testing the lows March lows . There is no divergence on daily RSI indicating further downside could be seen.
Maersk is hovering around the consolidation area low back from Q1 2021 and another weekly close below paves the way for further downside.
Monthly chart shows a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern . There is strong support at around 10,555 close to the 1.618 projection of the Head to Neckline distance at 10,520
Key question is whether monthly RSI will close below 40 threshold or not. If it does there is further downside in store for Maersk. If closing above a rebound should be expected.
Danske Bank has formed a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern and is close to be testing the possibly Neckline. A close below the neckline i.e., a close below 134 is likely to lead to further selling down to 118 possibly 103.
For this pattern to be demolished and trend to be reversed a close above 149.60 is needed.
2024: The wasted year
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With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.