Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: The week leading up the the Thanksgiving week is often bullish for stocks. The week has started out well but Nvidia Earnings announcement today after market hours can put a damper on the party - or fuel it further
USNAS100 and US500 cfd's in the analysis
Nasdaq 100 closed yesterday above 16K thus taking out the July peak.
RSI is showing positive sentiment with no divergence indicating likely higher Index levels. A short term peak could be around the 1.618 projection at 16,122 possibly at the 1.764 projection at 16,308
However, there is no resistance until the all-time high at 16,765 from November 2021.
A negative surprise from Nvidia Earnings announcement today after market can initiate a correction in Nasdaq 100 – and S&P 500 for that matter.
Unless it is a massive negative surprise the earnings announcement is likely to just initiate a correction in both Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 before uptrend is resumed.
To reverse the bullish trend a close below 15,171 is needed. First indication of that scenario to play out would most likely be a close of the gap i.e., a close below 15,535
USNAS100 cfd. Testing July peak level from the upper side. A close below is likely to initiate a correction down to around 15,525, possibly lower to 15,350
Uptrend will be intact until a close below 15,138 S&P 500 is testing resistance at around 4,550 just shy of July peak at around 4,607. RSI is above 70 i.e., indicating uptrend is a bit stretched but is likely to continue higher.
A close above 4,550 is likely to lead the Index to take out the July peak. A close above 4,607 will mean there is no resistance until all-time highs around 4,818
A rejection could send S&P 500 back to test the Gap area. If the gap is closed i.e., a close below 4,415 the bullish scenario is in jeopardy. A close below 4,343 will reverse the uptrend.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.