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Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
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Technical Update - DAX, AEX25, BEL20, CAC40 and SMI20
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: In this Technical Update: DAX / GER40, AEX25 / NETH25, BEL20 / BELG20, CAC40 / FRA40 and SMI20 / SWISS20
DAX is range bound between 16,060 and 15,482. Break out needed for direction. Negative sentiment on RSI is indicating break is to be to the down side, and with the 55 and 100 Moving Average slightly declining the underlying trend sentiment is bearish.
If closing below key support at around 15,482 there is downside risk to around 15K.Breaking bullish can be a struggle with the two Moving Average acting as a ceiling. It could be a struggle for DAX to penetrate. But if it does a move to July peak around 16,500 is likely
AEX25/NETH25 is bouncing from key strong support at around 730. However, the trend is down and there is no RSI divergence supporting the view of lower AEX levels. If AEX is closing below 730 a swift sell-off down to around 716-710 support is likely.
For AEX to demolish the bearish trend a close above 755 is needed.
However, with the 55 Moving Average on the verge of breaking below the 100 while they are bot declining thus forming a Death Cross upside potential is limited. That is not bullish for AEX
For AEX to demolish the bearish trend a close above 755 is needed.
However, with the 55 Moving Average on the verge of breaking below the 100 while they are bot declining thus forming a Death Cross upside potential is limited. That is not bullish for AEX
BEL20/BELG20 is side stepping failing to close above key resistance at around 3,696.
RSI sentiment is negative indicating BEL20 is likely to trade lower in coming days and weeks.
A close below 3,610 could ignite a sell off down to around 3,600-3,550.
A close above 3,696 is needed for BEL20 to reverse to uptrend
CAC40/FRA40 Index has been range bound since April with a bearish undertone. The 200 Moving Average is providing support but upside potential seems limited with the Index moving below declining 55 and 100 Moving Averages. A re-test of key strong support at around 7,082 is in the cards.
If CAC40 is closing below 7,082 there is no strong support until around 6,900
If CAC40 is closing below 7,082 there is no strong support until around 6,900
SMI20/SWISS20 is forming symmetrical triangle pattern. Break out is needed for direction.
Break out direction is likely to be to the downside as indicated by the negative RSI sentiment and all Moving Averages declining
If that is the scenario that will play out SMI has downside potential to around 10,515 before finding support.
Minor support at around 10,750.
If Bullish break out there is strong overhead resistance with the declining Moving Averages above the Index.
A close above 11,173 is needed for bullish trend
Break out direction is likely to be to the downside as indicated by the negative RSI sentiment and all Moving Averages declining
If that is the scenario that will play out SMI has downside potential to around 10,515 before finding support.
Minor support at around 10,750.
If Bullish break out there is strong overhead resistance with the declining Moving Averages above the Index.
A close above 11,173 is needed for bullish trend
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