Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
S&P ASX200 is continuing its short-term downtrend/correction and is close to test lower rising trendline. A dip down to the 0.618 retracement and support at around 7,152 should be expected in an exhaustive corrective move. 100 daily Moving Average adding to the support
Daily RSI showing negative sentiment supporting the view of lower levels on ASX200. If ASX200 closes above 7,477 uptrend is to resume.
Medium-term uptrend is still intact. Weekly RSI still positive and with no divergence indicating likely higher ASX 200 levels. Test of all-time highs after the ongoing correction is still in the cards.
Hang Seng Index sell-off has reached 20K but seems likely to drop further . RSI is negative indicating lower levels on the Hang Seng. Support at the 0.382 retracement and the 200 daily Moving Average around 19,06 and support at around 18,960 where 100 daily Moving Average will add to the support. For Hang Seng to resume uptrend a close above 21,07 is needed
FTSE China A50 future has broken below the 200 daily SMA. Downtrend further confirmed and further down side to strong support at around 12,800 seems likely. RSI below 40 confirms the negative sentiment. A close above 13,838 will reverse the down trend.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.