Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: AEX25/NETH25 cfd, CAC40/FRA40 cfd, BEL20/BELG20 cfd and SMI20/SWISS20cfd
AEX25/NETH25 cfd has broken below key support at around 781. Unless buyers can lift the Index to close back above 781 a correction is unfolding that could take AEX down to 765 support.
To resume uptrend AEX needs to close above 792.50BEL20/BELG20 cfd bouncing from lower rising trendline BEL20 is trying to resume uptrend. To confirm uptrend has resumed a close above 3,763 is needed. If that scenario plays out there is room up to resistance at around 3,825-3,850
If closing below lower rising trendline a sell-off down to around 3,575 is in the cards
CAC40/FRA40 cfd is being sold off heavily and close to be testing the support at around 7,405. It is not the strongest support and the CAC40/FRA40 could drop to the stronger support at around 7,330
A close back above 7,526 will demolish the bearish correction scenarioSMI20/ SWISS20 Despite gapping higher this morning SMI20 seems to be failing in staying above 11,245 support/resistance level.
If closing the gap created this Wednesday morning further selling could be seen likely resulting in support at around 11,057 to be tested. A close below could push the Index to 10,963-10,880
A daily close above 11,245 the uptrend is likely to resume with short-term potential to 11,400