Log in Open account
International
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
Show more
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Show less
Technical Update - WTI broken bullish. Brent Struggling. Natural Gas bounce still has legs to go but for how long? Technical Update - WTI broken bullish. Brent Struggling. Natural Gas bounce still has legs to go but for how long? Technical Update - WTI broken bullish. Brent Struggling. Natural Gas bounce still has legs to go but for how long?

Technical Update - WTI broken bullish. Brent Struggling. Natural Gas bounce still has legs to go but for how long?

Commodities 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  WTI Crude oil broken above key resistance but Brent oil is struggling. Natural Gas bounce continuing. How high can it go?

WTI Crude oil closed Friday above key strong resistance at around 79.77. RSI closed back above 60 threshold supporting a bullish trend.

WTI is above the slightly rising 200 Daily Moving Average and with the 55 DMA rising steep below the underlying sentiment is bullish. Should be noted however, that the 100 DAM is declining adding to a bit mixed picture i.e., a bullish move is likely to be struggling for momentum

However, there is now upside potential to the 1.382 projection at 84.14 close to the 0.618 retracement at 84.59. Strong resistance at around 82.56, however, could cut the bullish move short.

A close below 75.50 will demolish the bullish scenario
wti d 0403
Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

Brent Crude oil on the other hand has not broken its key resistance at around 84.75.
A close above is needed for a confirmation of a bullish scenario, supported by an RSI close above 60. RSI is showing positive sentiment already but needs to close back above 60 for continued confirmation.

A close above 84.75 could push Brent to resistance at around 87.35 but there could be potential to 89.50-90.50
The Daily Moving Averages are acting like the Moving Averages for WTI.

A close below 80.70 will initiate a bearish move lower
brent d 0403

Dutch TTF Gas has bounced off support at around 22.85. The Gas contract could bounce to the 0.618 retracement at around 27.82 if it can overcome resistance at around 26.50.

A push to the 0.786 retracement at 29.31 should not be ruled out. Strong resistance at around 31
gas d 0403

Henry Hub Natural Gas is closing in on the USD2 levels that was mentioned in the latest Technical Update as a likely price target. A move to the 0.786 retracement at 2.03 seems quite likely.

If breaking above that level (2.03) the strong resistance at around 2.17 could be tested.

If Nat Gas is losing upside momentum and closing back below 1.80 previous trough at around 1.52 is likely to be tested
natgas d 0403

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • 350x200 peter

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • 350x200 althea

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • 350x200 peter

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • 350x200 charu (1)

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • 350x200 ole

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

 The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International
Products & pricing
Platforms
Accounts & service
General
Other
Legal

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.