Technical Update - Wheat, Corn and Soybeans confirming reversal patterns. Coffee reversing to downtrend

Technical Update - Wheat, Corn and Soybeans confirming reversal patterns. Coffee reversing to downtrend

Commodities 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  Wheat, Corn and Soybeans have all formed bottom and reversal patterns with substantial upside potential . Coffee moving against the trend has formed a bearish pattern and could collapse to January lows


Wheat has formed a Double Bottom and if it closes above 712.50 it is confirmed with a potential short-term to test the and medium-term falling trend line and reach the 1.618 projection 748.65. A break above could pave the road towards strong resistance at around 800.
RSI Divergence supports the trend reversal picture.
IF Wheat slides back below 654 the downtrend resumes with down side potential to around 615.

The strong bounce came in Wheat after sellers on several occasions have failed to close the grain below strong support at around 677. See weekly chart. If Wheat closes a week above 800 the medium-term downtrend has reversed.

wheat d 29mar
Source all Charts and Data: Saxo Group
wheat w 29mar

Corn is continuing towards potential Inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder target around 670 as illustrated with the vertical arrows and the Fibonacci Extension. There will be some resistance around the 55, 100 and 200 daily Moving Averages coming down currently around the 0.618 Extension.

RSI is close to breaking bullish and if it does close above 60 it will further confirm the bullish reversal picture.
For Corn to demolish and reverse this bullish picture a close below right shoulder is needed.

Weekly chart Corn bounced from the lower rising trendline but the medium-term trend is still down until Corn closes above 689.

Corn d 29mar
Corn w 29mar

Soybeans bounced strongly from strong support at around 1,406 and could continue up to around the 0.618 retracement at round 1,487.50. Expect a correction from that level where both the 100 and 200 daily MA will provide resistance. A spike up to test the lower Cloud span B and the 0.786 retracement around 1,510 could be seen.

RSI is still negative however, and if Soybeans drop below 1,400 down trend will resume and be extended.

Soybean d 29mar

Coffee. If closing below Neckline i.e., below 170, a SHS like pattern has been confirmed with potential down to around 143. Sell-off could accelerate if Coffee closes below the cloud i.e., below 167.50.
To demolish and reverse this bearish picture a close above right shoulder at 184 is needed.

Coffee d 29mar

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.