Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
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Technical Update - Silver bounced strongly with Gold lagging, but can it continue? Gold/Silver ratio hit strong resistance. Copper in a limbo
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Silver broke below the support at 18.14 but bounced strongly back and broke above the falling trend line. Going straight through the 0.618 Fibo retracement Silver is getting close to test the 0.764 retracement at 20.08.
However, the big test would be at the key resistance at 20.88. If Silver closes above, the short- and medium-term down trend has reversed, and Silver could move to around 22.00-22.50.
RSI is back above 60 threshold i.e., showing bullish sentiment indicating higher levels are likely
However, if Silver closes back below the falling trend line it could lose its momentum. A close below 19.00 it is likely to resume bear trend and push the precious metal towards 18.00
Gold XAUUSD didn’t even test the 1,680 support before a rebound has set in. But the rebound doesn’t seem to get traction struggling to break the 0.382 retracement at 1,734 and after the release of CPI numbers Gold has been hammered down.
However, even if buyers are coming lifting Gold above the 0.382 retracement at 1,734 the big test will be whether Gold can break the falling trend line and more importantly the 1,766 resistance.
If closing above resistance at 1,766 a move to around 1,800-1,830 is in the cards. 1,830 is the 0.382 Fibo retracement of the past six months bear trend.
However, with the rejection of the 1,734 minor resistance Gold is likely to test the 1,680. A close below can send Gold much lower.
Weekly chart shows that there us no support before around the 0.764 retracement at 1,598. The 200 weekly SMA will provide some support however, but the trend will be down.
Gold/Silver ratio XAUXAG had been showing divergence on RSI which indicated weakening of the (up)trend. After hitting strong resistance at 95.80 last week the sell-off was initiated by forming a Bearish Engulfing top and reversal candle. Selling pressure is continuing this week.
Silver has broken the below the medium term rising trendline and is close to reverse the uptrend. If closing below 86.20 the trend has reversed, and next support is at 82.26.
Copper has bounced strongly from the 0.618 retracement and looked to be set for at a test of August peak at around 378.30. But a rejection at the 0.764 retracement at 368 and with RSI still showing negative sentiment the selling pressure in Copper could accelerate.
If Copper drops back below its 55 SMA 336 support is likely to be taken out and Copper to test the July lows at around 313. RSI is showing negative sentiment and needs to close above 60 to reverse that.
For Copper to regain upside momentum 368 needs to be taken out. But the big test wis 378.30. A close above and Copper has established an uptrend.
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