Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Gold rips through major resistance on white hot US CPI print
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Gold blasted through $1835 resistance yesterday after US October CPI recorded the highest print in over 30 years. While the rally was supported by US 10-year real yields, which in the immediate aftermath dropped to a record low, it was the ability to move higher despite seeing the dollar hit a 16 month high that caught some attention. Potentially a sign the market is finally waking up to the fact inflation is a longer-term problem and that gold has some catching up to do relative to current real yield levels.
Gold blasted through $1835 resistance yesterday after US October CPI recorded the highest print in over 30 years. The rally was supported by US 10-year real yields which in the immediate aftermath dropped to a record low at minus 1.25 percent. While the narrative had developed in the wake of the FOMC meeting last week that the Fed would look through high inflation numbers, preferring to focus mostly on the labor market, these numbers were sufficiently hot to jolt the market, raising Fed rate hike expectations for next year.
Gold’s inability to break above $1835 had since July supported a dislocation between rangebound gold and falling real yields. Despite the stronger dollar during this time, it can still be argued that gold has got some catching up to do, with real yields around current levels potentially pointing to a gold price above $1900.
The hot CPI number drove the number of expected 25 basis point rate hikes next year to 2-½ and combined rising long-end bond yields following a disastrous 30-year US Treasury auction, which was sold with the longest tail on record, the dollar jumped across the board. Not least against the euro after the EURUSD broke below the psychological €1.15 level for the first time since July of last year.
Gold’s newfound strength and current ability to weather the strong dollar challenge helped drive gold priced in euros to a one-year high at €1625/oz.
Silver also caught a bid, especially after managing to break the previous double top at $24.86. For now, the break has not resulted in any outperformance against gold with the gold-silver ratio, currently trading around 74.50 and in need of a break below 74 for that to accelerate.
With the US bond market closed for Veteran’s Day, the market will be focusing on whether gold can build on the break or return to test resistance-turned-support in the mentioned $1833-35 area. Also, ETF holdings will now be in focus to see if the break will trigger renewed interest following months of redemptions. Fund managers have increasingly been reducing their gold exposure during the past year as low stock market volatility and rising equity prices reduced the need for diversification. Whether the white hot October US CPI print will change that remains to be seen during the coming weeks.
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2026
-
-
Outrageous Predictions
A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi... -
Outrageous Predictions
Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral... -
Outrageous Predictions
Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril... -
Outrageous Predictions
Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash... -
Outrageous Predictions
Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w... -
Outrageous Predictions
SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-... -
Outrageous Predictions
China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate its economy
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Having created history’s most epic debt bubble, China boldly bets that fiscal stimulus to the tune o...