5 Expected returns from 1-2 years bonds M

What are bonds? A very brief introduction

Bonds
Picture of John Hardy
John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Bonds are a class of debt securities issued by governments and companies that typically pay out a pre-defined cash flow to holders, called its “coupon”. On their date of issuance, the vast majority of bonds have a maturity date, a date in the future when the bond holder will be reimbursed the full face amount of the bond. That face amount at maturity is called par and is expressed at a price of 100 for the bond, i.e., 100% of the face amount. A bond can trade both well above par and well below par depending on a number of factors, like the size and of its coupon relative to prevailing interest rates, the timing of the coupon payout, and the credit quality of the government or company issuing the bond and other factors.

There are an endless variety of bonds, for example those with coupons that “float” according to changes in the interest rates, inflation-linked bonds, short term bills that are issued below par and don’t pay a coupon, but mature at par, etc. It can all seem a bit daunting to investors not familiar with bonds, or “fixed income” as the professionals call them. But complexity shouldn’t scare investors away from investing in bonds. The vast majority of bonds worth buying for an investor looking for basic income and portfolio diversification, especially those with a medium or higher credit ratings, are quite straightforward in their risk versus expected return profile. That is especially the case in the current environment of significantly positive interest rates, i.e., now that we have exited the zero- and negative policy rate era in most countries.

In order to judge the “quality” of a specific bond, the bond will be rated by a so-called credit rating agency, where the three dominant players are Moody’s, S&P and Fitch. The quality of a bond generally refers to how likely it is that the bond issuer is able to services its obligations to the investor in terms of paying coupons, paying back the loan at maturity etc. Bond ratings are split into two main categories – investment grade and non-investment grade/high yield/junk. Investment grade is high quality bonds where you get a lower return and take on less risk according to the rating, whereas high yield is where you get a higher return and take on more risk.

The different credit ratings from the different agencies can be seen below.
 

Outrageous Predictions 2026

01 /

  • Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Outrageous Predictions

    Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Saxo Group

    Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
  • A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Outrageous Predictions

    A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi...
  • Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    Outrageous Predictions

    Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...
  • Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral...
  • Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets

    Outrageous Predictions

    Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p...
  • Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril...
  • Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Outrageous Predictions

    Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Neil Wilson

    Investor Content Strategist

    A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash...
  • Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    Outrageous Predictions

    Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w...
  • SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    Outrageous Predictions

    SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-...
  • China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate its economy

    Outrageous Predictions

    China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate its economy

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Having created history’s most epic debt bubble, China boldly bets that fiscal stimulus to the tune o...

This content is marketing material. 

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice or a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Saxo partners with companies that provide compensation for promotional activities conducted on its platform. Some partners also pay retrocessions contingent on clients investing in products from those partners. 

While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all educational and research content remains focused on providing information to clients.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900 Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.