USD bears need to make their move

John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy

Please see today's FX Board PDF (linked here) for the latest Notes of Interest, Trend and Trend Heat readings, as well as a few thoughts on key chart developments below.

Charts: USDCHF

USDCHF is an interesting one as the recent low came without an accompanying fresh momentum low, and the divergence is somewhat bullish already and more so if the USD can follow through higher soon, with better confirmation if the pair can retake the 0.9400-50 zone. 

Of course, that eventuality would also likely require a breakdown in EURUSD below 1.2300 unless CHF is weakening sharply against the euro as well.

The SEK was sent lower again today after a weak CPI release from Sweden. This has taken EURSEK back close to the massive cycle resistance at 10.00, a level that may come fail more significantly if risk appetite deteriorates again.

The SEK decline is readily evident elsewhere, particularly versus NOK as NOKSEK has vaulted to new local highs after a prior false start above the 200-day moving average. The momentum looks fresh and hot and could take the pair significantly higher if 10.00 fails in EURSEK and forces a reassessment of SEK's downside potential.