Outrageous Predictions
Révolution Verte en Suisse : un projet de CHF 30 milliards d’ici 2050
Katrin Wagner
Head of Investment Content Switzerland
Investment and Options Strategist
Résumé: Diagonal spreads combine time, strike, and volatility into a single options structure. This article explains how diagonals work in practice, using recent volatility in SLV purely as a real-world learning example.
Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.
Options strategies are often introduced through market opinions: bullish, bearish, or neutral views tied to a specific asset. This article takes a different route.
The focus here is not on predicting silver, but on understanding how a diagonal spread behaves. SLV is used purely as a real‑world example because its recent price swings and elevated implied volatility make the mechanics easier to see in practice.
The iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) is a listed product designed to track the price of silver. It is often used by investors who want precious-metals exposure without trading futures contracts directly.
When a market becomes the centre of attention, two things tend to happen at once:
That second point matters because it changes what “a good idea” looks like. In calm markets, simple options structures can be sufficient. In stressed or fast-moving markets, the same structures can become expensive, fragile, or both.
This is where a diagonal spread becomes a useful educational example.
The chart illustrates how extreme the recent move has been and how violent the pullback can become when positioning gets crowded.
A diagonal spread is a two-leg options position that combines:
In a call diagonal, both legs are calls.
Unlike a vertical spread (same expiry), a diagonal mixes time and strike.
A helpful mental model: a diagonal is what happens when a calendar spread and a vertical spread have a child, then give that child a risk management obsession.
In the option chain shown, implied volatility is not merely “high”. It is screaming.
For Feb 2026 (expires 20 Feb 2026, 17 days):
Two observations matter for learning:
High implied volatility does not predict direction. What it does predict is that the market is charging a premium for uncertainty.
This is precisely why a diagonal is worth studying: it is a structure that can maintain exposure while selling some of that premium back to the market.
A diagonal spread behaves like a negotiation between two options.
This is the trade-off: the short leg can finance the long leg, but it also introduces path risk if the underlying moves too far too fast.
The example shown below illustrates a call diagonal built on SLV around 72.44.
The simulation’s payoff view summarises the structure:
It is important to treat these as model outputs tied to assumptions (volatility, time, and pricing inputs). The exact realised outcome depends on how SLV moves and how implied volatility evolves.
This structure is interesting because it separates longer-run participation from near-term premium dynamics. The long call at 70 sits close to the underlying, giving it meaningful exposure to SLV’s direction over a longer horizon. The short call at 85 is out-of-the-money, allowing premium collection, but it also means the position becomes more sensitive to a fast upside move than it would be with a higher short strike. In practice, the short strike is where the trade-off lives: closer strikes collect more premium, but they bring forward the point where the short leg starts dominating the risk profile.
A call diagonal typically benefits from one or more of the following paths:
In plain terms: the structure often prefers a market that remains volatile enough to pay premium, but not so explosive that it runs straight through the short strike.
A diagonal is not a “safe” trade. It is a shaped exposure with specific failure modes.
A vertical spread is primarily a directional structure with a fixed expiry. It can be clean and simple, but in high implied volatility it can still be expensive, and it forces a single time horizon.
A diagonal gives a second lever: the trader is not only choosing a directional thesis, but also a time profile.
That is why diagonals are often described as “position management friendly” structures: they can be adjusted over time by changing only the short leg.
This article focuses on mechanics, not signals. Still, a diagonal becomes easier to understand (and evaluate) when a few things are checked first:
The educational logic of this diagonal is strongest when near-term implied volatility is richer than longer-dated implied volatility.
If a term-structure snapshot showed that longer-dated implied volatility is similarly elevated (or higher), the position becomes less about “selling rich front-month premium” and more about “financing longer-dated exposure while accepting path risk”.
That is still a valid learning case, but it changes the headline reason why the diagonal is attractive in the first place.
When markets behave politely, most strategies look intelligent.
When markets behave like silver has recently, strategies have to show their wiring.
A diagonal spread is one of the clearer wiring diagrams in listed options: it forces a trader to separate exposure from timing, and to admit that volatility is not an afterthought. It is part of the price.
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