Market Quick Take – 21 April 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Asia rose, while Europe fell and Wall Street paused, as Iran headlines pushed oil higher but did not break risk appetite.
• Volatility: VIX stays below 20, Iran talks vs risk, earnings + retail sale
• Digital Assets: BTC steady, ETH softer, IBIT/ETHA weak, COIN/MSTR strong
• Fixed Income: Treasury yields steady near lower end of recent range ahead of Fed Chair nomination hearings for Kevin Warsh.
• Currencies: USD slightly firmer after Monday rally was rejected. All eyes on Fed Chair nomination hearings for Kevin Warsh. NZD firms on hot CPI print.
• Commodities: Oil and gold ease ahead of US–Iran talks; surging China import supports silver
• Macro events: UK Employment Data, US Mar. Retail Sales, US Fed Chair Nomination Hearings for Kevin Warsh

Macro headlines

• US Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh will testify in his first nomination hearing before the Senate Banking Committee today at 1400 GMT. Warsh will make opening remarks followed by a series of questions from Senate lawmakers – with questions on Fed independence and President Trump’s pressure to cut rates considered the hottest topics. Warsh has also argued in favour of cutting the Fed’s balance sheet size, which is at odds with the recent resumption of regular Fed treasury purchases that resumed in December. It is unsure whether his nomination can be approved by the time Fed Chair Powell’s term as chair ends on May 15 as Republican Thom Tillis has vowed he will not vote to approve Warsh until the US Department of Justice drops the case against Powell for supposedly lying about the use of funds related to the renovation of Fed buildings.
• Iran will send a delegation to Islamabad for new US talks before the ceasefire ends, reversing its earlier stance. Trump says he’s unlikely to extend the truce without a deal and will keep the Strait of Hormuz blocked until then. Key disputes include the strait’s status, Iran’s nuclear program, and regional tensions.
• New Zealand’s annual inflation was 3.1% in March 2026, exceeding a forecast 2.9% and above the RBNZ target lifting bets on a July interest-rate hike. The Reserve Bank provisionally estimates inflation will accelerate to 4.2% in the current quarter, with local economists reckoning the CPI could push even higher and stay above the top of the target for some time
• Canada’s annual inflation rose to 2.4% in March 2026 from 1.8%, just below the 2.5% forecast, mainly due to a jump in energy costs linked to Middle East conflict. Energy inflation swung to 3.9% from -9.3%, lifting transport inflation to 3.7%, while shelter and recreation/education also picked up.
• Germany’s producer prices fell 0.2% year-on-year in March 2026, the smallest drop in a year, as energy prices declined less sharply and mineral oil products rose. Non-durable consumer goods fell on cheaper food, while capital, durable consumer, and intermediate goods increased. Excluding energy, prices rose 1.3%. Month-on-month, producer prices jumped 2.5%, driven by a 7.5% surge in energy costs.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – UK Feb. Average Weekly earnings
0600 – UK Feb. ILO Unemployment Rate / Employment Change
0600 – UK Mar. Claimant Count Rate
0600 – UK Mar. Jobless Claims Change
0900 – Germany Apr. ZEW Survey
1215 – US Weekly ADP Employment Change (four weeks ending Apr 4)
1230 – US Apr. Philadelphia Fed Non-manufacturing survey
1230 – US Mar. Retail Sales
1400 – US Fed Chair Nominee Warsh to testify in nomination hearing
1500 – South African Reserve Bank Policy Review
1830 – US Fed’s Waller to Speak on Fed Operations
2350 – Japan Mar. Trade Balance

Earnings this week

• Today: Tuesday: UnitedHealth, GE Aerospace, Intuitive Surgical, RTX, 3M, Danaher, D.R. Horton, Interactive Brokers, Northrop Grumman
• Wednesday: Boeing, Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments, ServiceNow, Lam Research, Vertiv, AT&T, ABB, Boston Scientific
• Thursday: Intel, American Express, KLA Corporation, SAP, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Lockheed Martin, Honeywell, Blackstone, Comcast, Nokia, NextEra Energy, Southern Copper, Newmont
• Friday: Procter & Gamble, SLB, Charter, HCA Healthcare, AB Volvo

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 7,109.14, the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.3% to 26,590.34, and the Dow was nearly flat at 49,442.56, as the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil higher and ended a run of record closes. Communication services led the pullback, with Meta down 2.6% and Netflix off 2.6%, while investors shifted toward energy and waited for a heavier earnings week. After the bell, Amazon rose 3.1% after saying it could invest up to $25 billion in Anthropic, while Alaska Air fell 4.1% after pulling its full-year profit outlook on fuel-cost pressure and Apple dipped modestly after naming John Ternus as Tim Cook’s successor.
• Europe: The STOXX 600 fell 0.8% to 621.46, the Euro STOXX 50 dropped 1.2% to 5,982.63, Germany’s DAX lost 1.2% to 24,417.80, and the FTSE 100 slipped 0.6% to 10,609.08, as doubts over U.S.-Iran talks and higher crude prices hit Europe’s more energy-sensitive market. Travel and leisure led losses, with easyJet, Lufthansa, Ryanair and IAG down between 2.2% and 3.1%, while Rolls-Royce fell 3.7% and Safran lost 3.9%. The other side of the oil trade was kinder to BP, Shell and TotalEnergies, which rose between 1.8% and 2.9%. Renishaw jumped 6.2% after raising forecasts, and investors will now watch whether earnings confirm that higher energy costs are starting to bite.
• Asia: Asian markets ended firmer on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.6% to 58,824.89, the Topix up 0.4% to 3,777.02, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 0.8% to 26,361.07, and South Korea’s Kospi up 0.4% to 6,219.09, as investors balanced Iran worries against AI demand and still-solid tech sentiment. SK Hynix rose 3.4% to a record high, while Alibaba added 0.4%, Tencent climbed 2.4%, and Xiaomi rose 1.0% in Hong Kong as traders stayed with big tech and memory winners. Asia looked through geopolitics more calmly than Europe did, but the next test is whether earnings can keep doing the heavy lifting.

Volatility

• Volatility remains elevated but controlled, with markets reacting to geopolitics without showing signs of stress. The VIX closed at 18.87 (+1.39) on Monday after briefly pushing higher on renewed U.S.–Iran tensions and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, while early Tuesday sentiment improved as signs of potential talks in Pakistan helped oil ease and equities stabilise. Investors are now balancing geopolitical risk with a heavy earnings calendar and today’s US retail sales, which could shift the near-term macro narrative.
• Based on SPX options pricing, the market is implying an expected move of about 94 points (1.32%) into Friday, with roughly 36–37 points (~0.52%) priced for today’s expiry.
• From today’s SPX options chain, near-the-money calls are trading at slightly higher implied volatility than puts, pointing to a mild upside skew and limited demand for immediate downside protection.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets are holding up well despite macro uncertainty, reinforcing the idea that crypto remains linked to risk sentiment but is not leading it. Bitcoin trades around $75,800–75,900, while Ethereum holds near $2,310–2,320, both slightly softer on the day after stabilising from earlier geopolitical-driven volatility.
• Among listed products, IBIT ($43.25, -1.57%) and ETHA ($17.62, -4.13%) are under some pressure, even as broader crypto equities such as COIN and MSTR move higher, suggesting continued preference for higher-beta exposure. Flow data reinforces this split: upside participation remains concentrated in crypto-linked equities, while ETFs continue to carry hedging and income overlays, particularly through put buying and call overwriting. Altcoins like Solana and XRP are modestly higher and continue to act as sentiment amplifiers, but the key driver remains macro—specifically whether Iran tensions ease and allow risk appetite to rebuild further.

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields remained steady to slightly lower Tuesday and in early Wednesday trading ahead of nomination hearings for Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield dipped about a basis point to 3.72% and the benchmark 10-year treasury yield was steady near the lowest daily closes of the cycle at 4.25%.
• Japan’s Government Bond Yields fell once again Tuesday as front-end yields eyed the lowest close in more than three weeks. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield dipped more than a basis point to just below 1.35% while the benchmark 10-year JGB yield fell another basis point to 2.38%, eyeing the lowest close in nine trading days after an intraday high water mark of 2.495% on April 13.

Commodities

• Oil prices slipped after a relatively quiet, range-bound Monday, with softer price action today driven by news that Iran may attend negotiations but only if the US blockade is being lifted. Potential talks with the US in Islamabad ahead of the ceasefire’s expiry on Wednesday follows a weekend marked by renewed tensions and conflicting signals, leaving the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed for now. The limited number of vessels managing to transit has done little to ease the ongoing tightening of the global energy market, which is increasingly short of prompt supplies - supporting elevated prices across diesel, jet fuel, fertilisers, and other key commodities.
• Gold is consolidating as traders assess the prospects for renewed US–Iran talks and the approaching ceasefire deadline. Its near-term trajectory remains closely linked to developments in the Middle East, given the potential spillover into inflation expectations, the dollar, bond yields, and US rate outlook. Also, some focus on US Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh first nomination hearing before the Senate Banking Committee today (see above).
• China’s silver imports surged to a record high in March, reaching around 836 tonnes, well above the 10-year seasonal average near 300 tonnes for the month. Strong demand from retail investors and the solar sector has kept domestic prices trading at an approximate 10% premium to London so far this year.
• The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 22% year-to-date, while the more energy-heavy S&P GSCI has gained 34%. All BCOM subsectors, except for softs, have delivered positive returns so far, underscoring the breadth of the rally—partly driven primarily by both direct and second-round effects of the Middle East conflict and the resulting disruption to key commodity supplies. Beyond strong gains across the energy complex, excluding natural gas, notable outperformers include aluminium, soybean oil, wheat, and cotton.

Currencies

• The US dollar firmed slightly in rangebound trading early Tuesday after an intraday sell-off Monday was erased. EURUSD dipped to 1.1775 while USDJPY rose back toward the very sticky 159.00 area that has been the middle of the range for several weeks.
• The New Zealand dollar firmed across the board on higher than expected Q4 CPI data, which boosted short NZ rates sharply and raised odds of a rate hike as soon as the late May RBNZ meeting. AUDNZD jumped over 0.4% to 1.2132 after trading as high as 1.2204.

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