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Ferrari earnings fall short of lofty expectations – what it means for investors
Koen Hoorelbeke
Investment and Options Strategist
Ferrari earnings fall short of lofty expectations – what it means for investors
Ferrari’s second-quarter results, released on 31 July, showed a mix of solid fundamentals and tempered forward-looking signals. The market’s verdict was brutal: RACE shares tumbled 11.6% on the day, the sharpest one-day fall since its 2016 listing. For many Ferrari enthusiasts around the world, deeply attached to the Prancing Horse, this sudden setback feels more like a blow to pride than a simple market move.
Key metrics at a glance
| Metric | Reported Q2 2025 | YoY change | Consensus | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | €1.787 bn | +4.4% | €1.816 bn | -1.6% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | €709 m | +6% | €709 m | In line |
| EPS (diluted) | €2.38 | +4% | €2.40 | -0.8% |
| Shipments | 3,494 units | ≈ flat | n/a | — |
Solid numbers, but no guidance upgrade
Ferrari reported €1.787 billion in revenue, up 4.4% year-on-year, with adjusted EBITDA of €709 million (a 39.7% margin) and diluted EPS of €2.38. Shipments were broadly flat at 3,494 units. While these figures were healthy, revenue and EPS came in slightly below consensus expectations, and management opted to maintain full-year guidance instead of raising it despite a recent reduction in US-EU tariffs.
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts called the guidance “tame,” especially as Ferrari’s valuation multiples are approaching those of luxury giant Hermès. Unit sales and average selling prices were also slightly shy of expectations, and the Q2 margin is likely the peak for the year as the Daytona model reaches the end of its run.
A split verdict from analysts
The sell-off prompted a wave of analyst updates. While the consensus rating remains bullish, with just over half of analysts still recommending a buy, several target prices were trimmed. Italian brokers diverged: Intesa Sanpaolo reaffirmed a bullish stance with a street-high €512 target, while Mediobanca moved to Neutral at €430. The average target price now sits around €444–€456, implying 15–18% upside from the current level.
Still sold out until 2027
Despite the market reaction, Ferrari emphasised that its order book stretches well into 2027. The company remains on track to reach the upper end of its 38–40% margin target for 2026 a year early, supported by the Purosangue V12, 12Cilindri, and limited editions. October 9 will be a key date, as Ferrari unveils its first battery-electric vehicle and lays out its 2024–2029 strategy.
Valuation and investor considerations
Even after the drop, Ferrari trades at premium multiples, with a P/E approaching that of Hermès. For long-term investors, the brand moat and strong order backlog remain compelling. However, the muted guidance and questions about margins as the Daytona phases out may limit near-term upside.
Investors may want to reflect on Ferrari's long-term growth potential versus its high valuation. Considering factors such as upcoming product launches, evolving regulatory requirements, and global luxury demand trends can help determine whether the current share price aligns with their long-term objectives.
What to watch next
- October 9: first Ferrari EV unveil and new long-term targets.
- Q3 results later in October.
- US tariff developments, which could affect margins and pricing.
- China demand trends, where shipments have been weaker.
Ferrari remains a luxury powerhouse with enviable pricing power and brand loyalty, but expectations are high. For Ferrari enthusiasts worldwide, balancing passion with portfolio discipline may be the most prudent approach.
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The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..