Summary: Today, challenging the notion that energy prices can remain here or go higher and risk sentiment can stay stable as we wonder where the market's pain point is. It's either that, or we must see clarity emerge in the Hormuz Strait to justify the equity market's strong sentiment. Also, a look at companies reporting yesterday and today, macro and FX, the Bank of Japan's meeting today and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo’s piece on X-Energy as it IPO’d last week.
Ruben covers not just the X-Energy IPO, but a number of other players in the nuclear energy space. And here is a YouTube channel with X-Energy posts. Still not sure if I believe there is enough U 235 for scaling these kinds of power plants sufficiently to meaningfully power our economy - it makes up only about 0.7% of naturally occurring uranium ores and requires enormous processing overhead. Others want to go the thorium route, which has its own challenges.
What to do after the AI-crash?
Here’s a bold take that not only anticipates the crash of the AI bubble, but is a sort of public policy playbook on how to make the best of the situation out of the post-bubble wreckage for the public at large.
Mike Green on the death of the active manager before the passive tsunami.
And the dangerous implications, with a great sidebar on the recent silly AllBirds shoe-company-to-AI-infrastructure pivot pump-and-dump.
On the transition to post-social media.
Well, the “social” long ago left social media, but it is interesting to consider the level of disintermediation/disruption of incumbent platforms that might be possible in the age of AI.
The latest Hussman Funds report - amazing they keep it going.
Hussman continues to cling on to “the fundamentals mean something” campe years after the passive dominance has made life endless difficult for rational actors in global markets. It’s an admirable project and I fear the day they are proven right, if that day ever comes. The last time they flashed the “expected annualized returns” was in one of their January reports, which put annualized forward returns at something like -5% (that’s yearly…for twelve years"). Can fundamentalists stay liquid as long as the market can stay irrational/passive-Ponzi?
The US mid-term election in November is going to be an awful spectacle
As both Democrats and Republicansmercilessly gerrymander voting districts to politically tilt the Congressional makeup in their states, which will also heavily impact the 2028 presidential election. Here’s an idea - stop it?
Michael Every points out Russia not “winning” - certainly not financially.
The EURUSD chart has conflicting short term and longer term technicals here. The local setup looks constructive for the bulls after the rally cleared the recent resistance above 1.1600 and then as buyers fully eliminated the reaction to the war in Iran by taking the price back to 1.1800 and above, around where the pair traded the weekend before the war broke out. And yet, in the bigger picture, that rally stopped short near the 61.8% retracement of the monster sell-off from the 1.2081 high to 1.1411 low, a sell-off that profoundly challenged the longer term bull trend, with that key turnaround Fibo still in place.
So for the short term bullish case: From here, bulls will need for the 1.1625-50 zone to hold ideally, with 1.1575 as a kind of last gasp area of support/downside swing level.
For the medium term bearish case: If the price action fails below the 1.1575 downward swing level, focus reverts to the cycle lows and to a possible “C-wave” that eventually focuses on 1.1200-1.1250, the “A-wave” correction of the huge former bull move having unfolded from 1.2081 to 1.1411.
For the longer term bull case. Recall that EURUSD cleared the long term 1.1200+ resistance line from 2023-24 in early 2025 and remains in longer term bull mode assuming the 1.1200-50 zone continues to support. I prefer to look at shorter- and medium term trends compared to these very long term technical situations.
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Chief Investment Strategist
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Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Investor Content Strategist
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Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Saxo Group
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Global Head of Macro Strategy