Summary: Today, strong notes of general concern as yesterday could have marked the beginning of a broader weakening in risk sentiment, which has so far been avoided amidst the wild churn in individual stocks in the US even as the overall index has chopped around within the high end of the range. The worst thing for this market might be a sudden return of high correlation across stocks. Elsewhere, the JPY rally stalled out on a modest USD comeback as we await key US CPI data today, while treasuries showed interesting signs of serving as a safe haven yesterday and gold did not - stay tuned there! Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Mayhem in individual stocks underneath the relatively calm surface
Here is the chart passed on by Mike Green with annotations, showing how we have one of the most remarkably volatile markets for individual stocks relative to the index. This other chart is perhaps even wilder: we have never seen so many S&P 500 stocks so far off their highs with the overall index so close to its all time high.
AI a disruptor with an Achilles heel. Also is it eventually deflationary?
Michael Kao, a.k.a. UrbanKaoboy is a great follow on X - talks AI disruption as I quoted on the podcast today “AI being the apex predator of capital light businesses…” on a Monetary Matters podcast and he also links to a thought piece on how comprehensively disruptive AI could prove and what you should do about it. Also, a somewhat related piece on WSJ on the accounting shenanigans that Mag7 and other companies are engaged in to hide how asset heavy they are becoming.
Wall Street hunts next casualty from AI threat to white-collar work
An FT rundown on the market taking potshots at a wider range of companies on fears that their business models face disruption from AI technology. Yesterday’s story-of-the day on the front was a tiny former Karaoke machine outfit cratering transportation logistics stocks on its announcement of new AI tool.
Will US stocks every obey gravity of expected returns?
Hidden Forces interviews legend Jeremy Grantham and Edward Chancellor. People ignore the warnings of Grantham of major US market meltdown at their peril - he’s now 87 years old and quicker and more articulate than I could ever was or could hope to be. Grantham is also out with a autobiography/biography written by The Price of Time’s Edward Chancellor called The Making of a Permabear. I am ordering this ASAP.
Yesterday saw US treasuries putting in a strong rally, with the longest dated treasuries rallying the most. The 30-year benchmark yield fell a chunky seven-plus basis points on the day to a new lows since early December.The 2055 T-bond auctioned last summer rallied a solid one percent on the day. It was unusual to see treasuries acting as a safe haven and gold selling off, if briefly, at the same time yesterday as the stock market suffered a broad mini-meltdown. The proximate trigger for the move in treasuries seemed to be the release of a very weak US Existing Home Sales number for January, as the weak US housing market now appears in a near deep freeze. Some of that low activity for the month was most likely down to wild and very cold weather during the month for many sections of the US. More important for the status across the US dollar and US treasuries will be the January CPI release up later today. Always interesting to see a wildly hated asset class like the long bond rallying as it has over the last week and more.
Outrageous Predictions
Chief Investment Strategist
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Chief Investment Strategist
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Chief Investment Strategist
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Chief Investment Strategist
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Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Investor Content Strategist
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Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Saxo Group
Outrageous Predictions
Global Head of Macro Strategy