Podcast: USD knee-jerks lower on dovish (as expected) FOMC
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Today we run through the FOMC non-event that kept the Fed in wait-and-see mode as expected, although it was sufficiently dovish to trigger a slightly lower anticipation of eventual Fed tightening and a weaker US dollar. We also look at Biden's address on his stimulus and tax proposals, important inflation expectations considerations for the development in US yields, EU yields as the German Bund trades at critical support, how EU yields are driving EURJPY, and not least, run through Apple's latest strong result and earnings reports on the docket for today. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
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Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
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Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.