Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors and traders radars this week?
Macro

Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors and traders radars this week?

APAC Research

Summary:  The week starts with the Japanese cash market returning from a long weekend after the Ministry of Finance’s (MOF) intervention last Thursday to stop the Yen to weaken in response to the hawkish stance of the Fed and the Bank of Japan maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy. Any follow-up actions from the MOF, if the high of the USDJPY is tested again, will be the focus of the market. Investors will listen carefully to speeches from Fed and ECB officials this week for hints on the magnitude of the next rate hikes. On the data front, the highlights of the week will be the U.S. PCE, Eurozone CPI, and China’s PMIs.

Will Japanese authorities intervene further to defend the yen?

The Japanese authorities intervened in the currency markets for the first time in two decades last Thursday. USDJPY’s move above 145 following a hawkish FOMC and a still-accommodative Bank of Japan prompted the intervention, and dragged the pair to sub-141 levels before some of the move was retraced. However, Japan was closed on Friday for a holiday, and returns to trading today. Moreover, Governor Kuroda will make a speech and talk to reporters today. We believe the yen could weaken further given the pressure from yield differentials between the US, which continues to rise to fresh highs, vs. the yields in Japan which continue to remain capped. Meanwhile, the intervention last week has been possibly unilateral, suggesting it may not be long-lasting. This continues to raise the possibility of further intervention from the Japanese authorities, especially if USDJPY rises back above 145. 

China PMIs

China’s September official NBS Manufacturing PMI and Non-manufacturing PMI as well as the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI are scheduled to release on Friday. The median forecast of, economists surveyed by Bloomberg for the NBS Manufacturing PMI is 49.6 for September, a modest improvement from August’s 49.4 but remains in contraction territory.  Economists cite the lockdown of Chengdu and restrictive measures in some other cities during most part of the month and the weak EPMI released earlier as reasons for expecting the NBS Manufacturing PMI to stay below 50.  The Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which has a larger weight in coastal cities in the eastern region, is expected to slow slightly to 49.4 in September from 49.5 in August, reflecting weaker export-related manufacturing activities and container throughput.  The consensus estimate for the NBS Non-manufacturing PMI is 52.3, remaining in expansionary territory, supported by infrastructure construction but slowing slightly in September from August’s 52.6 due to weakness in the housing sector.  On the other hand, steel production and demand data in September suggest the PMIs may potentially surprise the upside.

Russia referendums results may create market volatility

The four Moscow-held regions of Ukraine – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – began voting on Friday on whether to become part of Russia, and results may be expected this week. The referendums are reminiscent of one in 2014 that saw Ukraine’s Crimea annexed by Russia. The four regions’ integration into Russia – which for most observers is already a foregone conclusion – would represent a major new escalation of the conflict. The threat of nuclear weapons will also keep risk off on the table, with Putin threatening to use “all means” to protect the annexed Russian territory. 

Eurozone CPI to get closer to 10%, Lagarde speak on watch

ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks on Monday and Wednesday, before we get the Eurozone inflation data on Thursday and Friday. The regional CPI is likely to rise further in September from 9.1% YoY in August amid higher energy prices especially as German price-cut measures come to an end. Higher food prices as well as a jump in services inflation will also likely underpin, as does the further weakness in EUR. The ECB itself raised its inflation projections at the recent policy meeting, with its 2022 estimate upped to 8.1% (prev. 6.8%), 2023 raised to 5.5% (prev. 3.5%), and 2024 lifted to 2.3% (prev. 2.1%). There is chatter that the ECB could discuss a 75bps rate rise at the October 27 meeting if the inflation outlook warrants.

Fed speakers and US PCE data on watch

There’s a rich calendar of Fed speakers to give insights into how to interpret the latest Fed decision. Regional Fed presidents Loretta Mester, Charles Evans and Raphael Bostic will discuss the economic outlook at separate events, while Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard will offer opening remarks at a New York Fed conference. It appears that the Fed rhetoric will continue to back the fight against inflation, as tightening of financial conditions remains the key focus. The Fed’s preferred inflation measures, the PCE is due at the end of this week, and it will likely echo the same message as given by the last strong CPI number which has made the Fed even more hawkish in the last few weeks since the Jackson Hole. Headline numbers may be lower due to the decline in gasoline prices, but the price pressure on services side will likely broaden further. Last week, the Fed also raised its forecasts for inflation, with the central bank now seeing core PCE at 4.5% by the end of this year (it previously projected 4.3%), moderating to 3.1% next year and at 2.1% at the end of its forecast horizon in 2025, but thinks that headline PCE prices will be at its 2% target by then. The third estimate of Q2 GDP will also be released in the US, likely confirming that the US economy remains in a technical recession. 

Can Nike weather the inflation storm?

The highlight in this week’s earnings calendar is Nike reporting FY23 Q1 (ending Aug 31) on Thursday.  In our colleague Peter Garnry’s note “Can Nike weather the inflation storm?”, he suggests that the biggest potential risk Nike’s results, is missing the anticipated bounce in the EBITDA margin to 15.8%. “Given the ongoing demand destruction among consumers and the strong USD it is likely that revenue could disappoint again and that margins cannot bounce back”, Peter remarks. If Nike misses expectations or guides for a bearish outlook the stock will likely fall. The technical indicators for Nike are quite bearish with the monthly chart showing further downside is likely ahead, with next level of support around perhaps $87.03. 

Australia’s economic pulse is expected to weaken; with credit and retail numbers expected to fall

Australia’s economy has remained resilient despite the global growth slowdown, and this has been reflected in its stock market outperforming global markets this year. However this week, Australia’s economic pulse checks are likely to weaken with retail sales and private sector credit (borrowing) both expected to fall, with the data on watch on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. If data is weaker than expected, consumer spending equities and banking stocks  will likely face pressure. Meanwhile, in currencies, The AUDUSD will be a currency pair to watch, which could face further downside over the longer term. Inversely, speaking of currencies, the AUDGBP is a pair to watch with Australia’s surplus at records, vs UK deficit likely to widen. 

Key economic releases & central bank meetings this week

Monday, Sep 26

US: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Aug)
US: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (Sep)
US: 2-year note auction (USD43 billion)
Japan: PMI Manufacturing (Sep)
Singapore: Industrial Production (Aug)
UK: Rightmove House Prices (Sep)
Germany: IFO Survey (Sep)

Tuesday, Sep 27

US: Durable Goods Orders (Aug)
US: New Home Sales (Aug)
US: Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sep)
US: 5-year Note Auction (USD44 billion)
China: Industrial Profits (Aug)
Eurozone: ECB M3 Annual Growth Rate (Aug)

Wednesday, Sep 28

US: MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly)
US: Advance Goods Trade Balance (Aug)
US: Wholesale Inventories (Aug)
US: Pending Home Sales (Aug)
US: 2-year FRN Auction (USD22 billion)
US: 7-year Note Auction
Japan: BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (July 20-21)
France: Consumer Confidence (Sep)
Italy: Consumer Confidence (Sep)
Italy: Manufacturing Sentiment (Sep)
Italy: Economic Sentiment (Sep)

Thursday, Sep 29

US: Jobless claims (weekly)
US: GDP (Q2, 3rd)
HK: Trade data (Aug)
UK: Mortgage Data (Aug)
Eurozone: Economic, Industrial & Services Confidence (Sep)
Germany: HICP (Sep, flash)
Spain: HICP (Sep, flash)

Friday, Sep 30

 US: Personal Income & Spending (Aug)
US: PCE & Core PCE (Aug)
US: Chicago PMI (Sep)
US: U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep, final)
US: U of Michigan 5-10-year Inflation Expectations (Sep, final)
Japan: Unemployment Rate (Aug)
Japan: Industrial Production (Aug)
Japan: Retail Sales (Aug)
Japan: Housing Starts (Aug)
Japan: Consumer Confidence Index (Sep)
China: NBS Manufacturing & Non-manufacturing PMIs (Sep)
China: Caixin China Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
HK: Retail Sales (Aug)
India: RBI Policy Meeting (Sep)
UK: GDP (Q2, 2nd)
France: HICP (Sep, flash)
Germany: Unemployment (Sep)
Eurozone: HICP (Sep, flash) 

Key earnings releases this week

  • Tuesday: Ferguson(FERG:xnys)
  • Wednesday: Paychex(PAYX:xnas), Cintas(CTAS:xnas)
  • Thursday: Polestar Automotive(PSNY:xnas), H&M(HMb:xome), Nike(NKE:xnys), Micron Technology(MU:xnas), CarMax(KMX:xnys)
  • Friday: Carnival(CCL:xnys), Nitori(9843:xtks)

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Trading in financial instruments carries risk, and may not be suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region

Singapore
Singapore

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.