Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors and traders radars this week?
APAC Strategy Team
Summary: The week starts with the Japanese cash market returning from a long weekend after the Ministry of Finance’s (MOF) intervention last Thursday to stop the Yen to weaken in response to the hawkish stance of the Fed and the Bank of Japan maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy. Any follow-up actions from the MOF, if the high of the USDJPY is tested again, will be the focus of the market. Investors will listen carefully to speeches from Fed and ECB officials this week for hints on the magnitude of the next rate hikes. On the data front, the highlights of the week will be the U.S. PCE, Eurozone CPI, and China’s PMIs.
Will Japanese authorities intervene further to defend the yen?
The Japanese authorities intervened in the currency markets for the first time in two decades last Thursday. USDJPY’s move above 145 following a hawkish FOMC and a still-accommodative Bank of Japan prompted the intervention, and dragged the pair to sub-141 levels before some of the move was retraced. However, Japan was closed on Friday for a holiday, and returns to trading today. Moreover, Governor Kuroda will make a speech and talk to reporters today. We believe the yen could weaken further given the pressure from yield differentials between the US, which continues to rise to fresh highs, vs. the yields in Japan which continue to remain capped. Meanwhile, the intervention last week has been possibly unilateral, suggesting it may not be long-lasting. This continues to raise the possibility of further intervention from the Japanese authorities, especially if USDJPY rises back above 145.
China’s September official NBS Manufacturing PMI and Non-manufacturing PMI as well as the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI are scheduled to release on Friday. The median forecast of, economists surveyed by Bloomberg for the NBS Manufacturing PMI is 49.6 for September, a modest improvement from August’s 49.4 but remains in contraction territory. Economists cite the lockdown of Chengdu and restrictive measures in some other cities during most part of the month and the weak EPMI released earlier as reasons for expecting the NBS Manufacturing PMI to stay below 50. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which has a larger weight in coastal cities in the eastern region, is expected to slow slightly to 49.4 in September from 49.5 in August, reflecting weaker export-related manufacturing activities and container throughput. The consensus estimate for the NBS Non-manufacturing PMI is 52.3, remaining in expansionary territory, supported by infrastructure construction but slowing slightly in September from August’s 52.6 due to weakness in the housing sector. On the other hand, steel production and demand data in September suggest the PMIs may potentially surprise the upside.
Russia referendums results may create market volatility
The four Moscow-held regions of Ukraine – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – began voting on Friday on whether to become part of Russia, and results may be expected this week. The referendums are reminiscent of one in 2014 that saw Ukraine’s Crimea annexed by Russia. The four regions’ integration into Russia – which for most observers is already a foregone conclusion – would represent a major new escalation of the conflict. The threat of nuclear weapons will also keep risk off on the table, with Putin threatening to use “all means” to protect the annexed Russian territory.
Eurozone CPI to get closer to 10%, Lagarde speak on watch
ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks on Monday and Wednesday, before we get the Eurozone inflation data on Thursday and Friday. The regional CPI is likely to rise further in September from 9.1% YoY in August amid higher energy prices especially as German price-cut measures come to an end. Higher food prices as well as a jump in services inflation will also likely underpin, as does the further weakness in EUR. The ECB itself raised its inflation projections at the recent policy meeting, with its 2022 estimate upped to 8.1% (prev. 6.8%), 2023 raised to 5.5% (prev. 3.5%), and 2024 lifted to 2.3% (prev. 2.1%). There is chatter that the ECB could discuss a 75bps rate rise at the October 27 meeting if the inflation outlook warrants.
Fed speakers and US PCE data on watch
There’s a rich calendar of Fed speakers to give insights into how to interpret the latest Fed decision. Regional Fed presidents Loretta Mester, Charles Evans and Raphael Bostic will discuss the economic outlook at separate events, while Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard will offer opening remarks at a New York Fed conference. It appears that the Fed rhetoric will continue to back the fight against inflation, as tightening of financial conditions remains the key focus. The Fed’s preferred inflation measures, the PCE is due at the end of this week, and it will likely echo the same message as given by the last strong CPI number which has made the Fed even more hawkish in the last few weeks since the Jackson Hole. Headline numbers may be lower due to the decline in gasoline prices, but the price pressure on services side will likely broaden further. Last week, the Fed also raised its forecasts for inflation, with the central bank now seeing core PCE at 4.5% by the end of this year (it previously projected 4.3%), moderating to 3.1% next year and at 2.1% at the end of its forecast horizon in 2025, but thinks that headline PCE prices will be at its 2% target by then. The third estimate of Q2 GDP will also be released in the US, likely confirming that the US economy remains in a technical recession.
Can Nike weather the inflation storm?
The highlight in this week’s earnings calendar is Nike reporting FY23 Q1 (ending Aug 31) on Thursday. In our colleague Peter Garnry’s note “Can Nike weather the inflation storm?”, he suggests that the biggest potential risk Nike’s results, is missing the anticipated bounce in the EBITDA margin to 15.8%. “Given the ongoing demand destruction among consumers and the strong USD it is likely that revenue could disappoint again and that margins cannot bounce back”, Peter remarks. If Nike misses expectations or guides for a bearish outlook the stock will likely fall. The technical indicators for Nike are quite bearish with the monthly chart showing further downside is likely ahead, with next level of support around perhaps $87.03.
Australia’s economic pulse is expected to weaken; with credit and retail numbers expected to fall
Australia’s economy has remained resilient despite the global growth slowdown, and this has been reflected in its stock market outperforming global markets this year. However this week, Australia’s economic pulse checks are likely to weaken with retail sales and private sector credit (borrowing) both expected to fall, with the data on watch on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. If data is weaker than expected, consumer spending equities and banking stocks will likely face pressure. Meanwhile, in currencies, The AUDUSD will be a currency pair to watch, which could face further downside over the longer term. Inversely, speaking of currencies, the AUDGBP is a pair to watch with Australia’s surplus at records, vs UK deficit likely to widen.
Key economic releases & central bank meetings this week
Monday, Sep 26US: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Aug)
US: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (Sep)
US: 2-year note auction (USD43 billion)
Japan: PMI Manufacturing (Sep)
Singapore: Industrial Production (Aug)
UK: Rightmove House Prices (Sep)
Germany: IFO Survey (Sep)
Tuesday, Sep 27US: Durable Goods Orders (Aug)
US: New Home Sales (Aug)
US: Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sep)
US: 5-year Note Auction (USD44 billion)
China: Industrial Profits (Aug)
Eurozone: ECB M3 Annual Growth Rate (Aug)
Wednesday, Sep 28US: MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly)
US: Advance Goods Trade Balance (Aug)
US: Wholesale Inventories (Aug)
US: Pending Home Sales (Aug)
US: 2-year FRN Auction (USD22 billion)
US: 7-year Note Auction
Japan: BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (July 20-21)
France: Consumer Confidence (Sep)
Italy: Consumer Confidence (Sep)
Italy: Manufacturing Sentiment (Sep)
Italy: Economic Sentiment (Sep)
Thursday, Sep 29US: Jobless claims (weekly)
US: GDP (Q2, 3rd)
HK: Trade data (Aug)
UK: Mortgage Data (Aug)
Eurozone: Economic, Industrial & Services Confidence (Sep)
Germany: HICP (Sep, flash)
Spain: HICP (Sep, flash)
Friday, Sep 30
US: Chicago PMI (Sep)
US: U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep, final)
US: U of Michigan 5-10-year Inflation Expectations (Sep, final)
Japan: Unemployment Rate (Aug)
Japan: Industrial Production (Aug)
Japan: Retail Sales (Aug)
Japan: Housing Starts (Aug)
Japan: Consumer Confidence Index (Sep)
China: NBS Manufacturing & Non-manufacturing PMIs (Sep)
China: Caixin China Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
HK: Retail Sales (Aug)
India: RBI Policy Meeting (Sep)
UK: GDP (Q2, 2nd)
France: HICP (Sep, flash)
Germany: Unemployment (Sep)
Eurozone: HICP (Sep, flash)
Key earnings releases this week
- Tuesday: Ferguson(FERG:xnys)
- Wednesday: Paychex(PAYX:xnas), Cintas(CTAS:xnas)
- Thursday: Polestar Automotive(PSNY:xnas), H&M(HMb:xome), Nike(NKE:xnys), Micron Technology(MU:xnas), CarMax(KMX:xnys)
- Friday: Carnival(CCL:xnys), Nitori(9843:xtks)
Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
- The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.