Saxo Spotlight: What’s on the radar for investors & traders for the week of 5-9 Dec? US PPI, China’s Politburo meeting, RBA policy meeting
APAC Strategy Team
Summary: Last week, bonds, commodities, and equities markets got a lift from a Powell speech that seems to have passed the peak hawkishness for now and a new round of encouraging signs of easing pandemic control restrictions in China and braved the hotter-than-expected wage inflation data on Friday. A light economic and earnings calendar plus the Fed entering into a blackout period before the December FOMC, this week will provide investors time to reassess and rebalance their portfolios in the final month of the year. In China, the politburo meeting will be a key event to monitor.
US data watch continues as Fed goes into a quiet period
Last week was quite a whipsaw for the markets after a dovish reaction to Fed Chair Powell’s speech which failed to add any new information for the markets that have been trained for a hawkish surprise from him over the last few months, to an expectedly higher US NFP print and a jump in the average hourly earnings data for November as well as October revision on Friday which showed sustained tightness in the labor markets. The Fed now goes into a quiet period ahead of the December 14-15 meeting so the focus turns to incoming data (or WSJ’s Nick Timiraos articles/tweets) for further direction in the yields and the dollar. US 10-year yields traded below the support at 3.50% at Friday’s close despite turning higher after the NFP, and the reaction of the dollar was also short-lived. Key data to watch this week will be the ISM services today, to see if the market is gaining sensitivity to recession concerns or still trying to celebrate the slower pace of rate hikes, and PPI on Friday which will likely continue to show a modest deceleration.
China’s Politburo meeting is a key event to watch
Before the Central Economic Work Conference convenes in mid/late December, the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo will meet in early December to discuss economic policies and establish the direction and policy framework for the work conference. Investors will pay close attention to the readout from the Politburo meeting for hints about the macroeconomic policy priorities and how they are balanced with the pandemic control strategy.
China’s inflation is expected to have moderated in November
The Bloomberg consensus is expecting China’s PPI to shrink further by -1.5% Y/Y in November (vs Oct: -1.3% Y/Y) and CPI to slow to +1.6% in November from +2.1% in October. Weak industrial demand in the midst of countrywide pandemic control-related restrictions during the month and weakness in energy prices would likely have contributed to the decline in the PPI. November CPI would have been dragged by base effects and weakness in food prices.
China’s new aggregate financing and RMB loans are expected to have bounced in November
Market economists, as surveyed by Bloomberg, are expecting China’s new aggregate financing to bounce to RMB 2,100 billion in November from RMB 907.9 billion in October and new RMB loans to rise to RMB 1,350 billion in November from RMB 615.2 billion as People’s Bank of China urged banks to extend credits to support private enterprises including property developers. Less bond issuance by local governments and corporate and weak loan demand however might have weighed on the pace of credit expansion in November.
Australia’s central bank to hike rates by 0.25% for the third straight month. What else to watch down under?
On Tuesday the Australian dollar will be a focus with the RBA expected to make its 3rd consecutive quarter-point hike, taking the cash rate from 2.85% to 3.1%. Australian monthly inflation data out two weeks ago showed AU inflation is slowing, while weaker than expected jobs data also supports the RBA remaining dovish. However, the closely watched inflation quarterly print is due out early next year, and will be a more accurate reflection of price rises. It will likely show inflation is more sticky with food and energy prices rising, which is contrary to what the monthly CPI alluded to. The bottom line is, the monthly CPI was a little delusionary. At Saxo, we see energy prices continuing to rise into 2023, which is also line with the RBA’s view. Especially as coal prices are back at record high territory ahead of peak demand season. Meanwhile consider the AUDUSD is up ~10% from its October low on hopes of commodity demand picking up from China, with major cities increasingly start to ease restrictions. As for what else to watch in Australia; third-quarter GDP growth data is released on Wednesday; expected to show GDP grew at 6.2% YoY. Then on, Thursday Australia’s trade data and balance is released for October; expected to show a softening, with the trade surplus expected to fall from $12.4 billion to $11.8 billion. Still the AUDUSD is up ~10% from its October low on forwarding thinking that commodity demand from China will increase as some major cities have started to ease restrictions.
G7 sets in a price cap for Russian oil, to kick in from Monday
The G7 nations have agreed to cap the price of Russian seaborne oil at $60/barrel, with a motive to diminish Russia’s revenues. This price cap is to go in effect on December 5, and represents a discount of ~$27 to the current price for Brent crude, but Urals has been trading at a discount of about $23 in recent days. However the risk of setting a price cap too low is that Russia could slash its output, which would roil markets. It will be important to watch for Russia’s reaction this week, after Putin has repeatedly said that they will not supply oil to countries that implement the price cap.
Earnings next week are a mish-mash of companies, and include high-end homebuilder Toll Brothers on Tuesday, as it will be interesting to hear their outlook on the new home market after the enormous surge in US mortgage rates and collapse in home sales activity. Broadcom (AVGO: xnas) is the market cap giant of the week to report, with the CEO of the company having said that the semiconductor market will not be affected by the US’ new export restrictions on technology to China.
Key economic releases & central bank meetings this week
Monday, Dec 5
U.S. ISM Services (Nov)
Eurozone Sentix (Dec)
Eurozone Retail Sales (Oct)
China Caixin PMI Services (Nov)
Singapore Retail Sales (Oct)
Tuesday, Dec 6
Germany Factory Orders (Oct)
U.K. PMI Construction (Nov)
Japan Consumer Spending (Oct)
Japan Total Cash Earnings (Oct)
Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Meeting (Dec)
Wednesday, Dec 7
Germany Industrial Production (Oct)
Eurozone GDP (Q3, final)
Japan Reuters Tankan (Manufacturing) (Dec)
Japan Economic Coincident Index (Oct)
China Exports (Nov)
Australia Real GDP (Q3)
Thursday, Dec 8
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 3)
Japan GDP (Q3, sec)
Japan Current Account (Oct)
Friday, Dec 9
U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec)
Japan M2 (Nov)
China PPI (Nov)
China CPI (Nov)
From Dec 9 to 15 (not fixed)
China New RMB Loans, Aggregate Financing, and Money Supply (Nov)
Key earnings releases this week
Tuesday: MongoDB, AutoZone, Toll Brothers, Ferguson
Wednesday: Brown Forman, Campbell Soup, GameStop
Thursday: Broadcom, Costco, Lululemon, Chewy
Friday: Oracle Corp, Li Auto
Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
- The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.