Global Market Quick Take: Asia – September 1, 2023

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – September 1, 2023

Macro 6 minutes to read
Saxo Be Invested
APAC Research

Summary:  US equities closed mixed after PCE data, with attention on US employment figures. Tech stocks outperformed. Hong Kong and China saw moderate losses post mixed NBS PMI data. Dollar strengthened due to EUR weakness from ECB comments. Crude oil surged 2% due to Russian export cuts. Yields dipped 1-3 basis points in quiet trade, awaiting employment report. US claims and PCE data showed a cooling economy. EZ inflation persisted, but ECB rate hike odds lowered. China adjusted mortgage rates and down payment ratios to spur housing demand. Upcoming: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US NFP, US ISM Manufacturing.


The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events. 

US Equities: Key indices ended Thursday mixed in a choppy session after inline PCE prints as the focus has shifted to today’s US employment data. Technology stocks outperformed seeing Seagate, Broadcom, Salesforce, Juniper, and Micron gain around 3%. For a discussion on Nvidia’s share buybacks, read on here.

China/HK Equities: The Hong Kong market is closed for a typhoon while mainland bourses are open today. Markets finished moderately lower on Thursday after a mixed set of China NBS PMI data that generated no fanfare.

FX: Month-end flows and EUR weakness driven by dovish ECB comments drove the dollar higher in the US session. EURUSD hit a low of 1.0835 from 1.0940 with September rate hike bets being pared. GBPUSD also sold-off but found support at 1.2650 with BOE chief economist Pill saying further hikes might not be necessary. PBoC’s announcement to cut forex deposit reserve ratio from 6% to 4% brought gains in CNH in the Asian morning. USDCNH slid below 7.25 from 7.2750, while NZD and AUD rallied. Focus turns to NFP jobs data in the day ahead, USDJPY remains below 146 and could see gains if data is strong.

Commodities: Crude oil extended gains as Russia agreed to further OPEC+ oil export curbs and more steps will be announced next week. Russia had cut crude exports by 500k barrels a day in August, reduced that to 300k in for September and October decision will be on watch next week. Saudi Arabia is also expected to extend its 1mn barrels a day cut to October. Gold on watch as well as it retreated to $1940 but a softer jobs data can bring a fresh push higher.

Fixed income: Yields slid 1 to 3 basis points across the curve on quite trading, with all eyes on the employment report today.

Macro: China’s PBoC announced a cut to FX RRR from 6% to 4% from September 15. Little new information in US claims and July PCE data. Jobless claims 228k (exp 235k, prev 232k) and core PCE +0.2% MoM, 4.2% YoY as expected. Both reaffirmed economy is cooling but not fast enough. Core services ex-housing rose 0.46% MoM (prev 0.3%), which could concern some Fed officials. EZ inflation remained stubborn with both headline and core up 5.3% YoY, vs. previous 5.3% and 5.5% respectively. However, comments from ECB's Schnabel on the slowing economy were later echoed by DeGuindos, leading to a repricing lower in the odds of an ECB rate hike in September.

In the news: China announced to lower interest rates charged on outstanding mortgages in a move to slow the wave of prepayment and boost consumption. Simultaneously, China standardizes the down payment requirements for home purchases across the country aiming at boosting housing demand. For more details, read on to our article here. Cybersecurity firms CrowdStrike, Okta shares jump after better-than-expected earnings – Full article in CNA.

Macro events: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug) exp 49.0 vs 49.2 prior (0945 SGT), US NFP (Aug) est 170k vs 187k prior (2030 SGT) – preview included in FX Watch. US ISM Manufacturing (Aug) est 47 vs 46.4 prior (2200 SGT)

Earnings events: Broadcom dropped by nearly 5% in the extended trading hours after giving a downbeat revenue guidance for Q4.

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

For a detailed look at what to watch in markets this week – read our Saxo Spotlight.

For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.

For thematic discussions on developments affecting your portfolio – watch our The Curious Investor videos.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Trading in financial instruments carries risk, and may not be suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region

Singapore
Singapore

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.