Global Market Quick Take: Asia – December 15, 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Asia – December 15, 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Asia – December 15, 2023

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – December 15, 2023

Macro 5 minutes to read
Charu Chanana

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  Stocks were choppy as the post-FOMC run was deflated, but dollar continued its slide with ECB and BOE proving to be relatively hawkish and staying away from talking about rate cuts at this stage. Semiconductor stocks jumped to fresh highs, while Adobe slid 7% on earnings disappointment. China data key ahead along with quad witching and earnings from Darden Restaurants.

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events. 

US Equities: Stocks lost some of the post-FOMC momentum with Russell outperforming but S&P 500 was up a modest 0.3% while NASDAQ 100 was down 0.2%. Hot retail sales and a slip in jobless claims took out some of the air from Fed’s dovish stance. Adobe was down 7% following disappointing earnings, but semiconductor stocks jumped to an all-time high with Intel rising to fresh 52-week highs. Rivian was up 13% on AT&T deal and Occidental Petroleum jumped 3% on Buffett push.

Fixed income: Treasuries extended gains after the dovish FOMC a day before, although the pace weakened with relatively hawkish ECB and BOE, as well as hot US retail sales and lower jobless claims. 2yr yields ended down by ~4bps while 10yr yields slipped over 9bps. Today’s focus turns to flash PMIs which may serve as a test of the saft landing hopes.

China/HK Equities: While most of the Asian markets were higher on Thursday post-FOMC, CSI 300 still closed down by 0.5% with credit data showing a weaker-than-expected expansion in November and eyes turning to activity data due today which may show an improving headline due to base effects but underlying trends could continue to be a concern. HSI opened higher but lost momentum in the day, still closing in gains of 1%.

FX: The dollar extended its post-FOMC slump, which was aided by a relatively hawkish BOE and ECB pushing their currencies higher. EURUSD jumped higher to test 1.10 from sub-1.09 at Thursday’s open, and 76.4% fibo retracement level at 1.1080 is in focus. GBPUSD pierced through the 1.27 handle, and touched highs of near-1.28 with 1.2881 being in focus. USDNOK slid to 10.4471 on Norges Bank rate hike, while USDCHF saw only a modest gain to 0.8630-levels. AUDUSD rose to trade around the 0.67 handle while NZD rose to 0.6240. USDJPY was seen at lows of 140.97, and a break below 140 could open the doors to 137-138 levels.

Commodities: The sharply lower USD boosted the commodity sector. Crude oil prices rose over 3% with Fed pivot signalling demand outlook could get supported. The IEA hiked its 2024 world oil demand growth forecast by 120k BPD to 1.1mln BPD, albeit cutting its 2023 forecast by 90k BPD to 2.3mln BPD. Gold was steady around $2040 while Silver cleared the barrier at $24. Copper took a look above $3.90 but China activity data may be key test today.


  • As expected, the ECB opted to stand pat on rates while the Governing Council has decided that reinvestments under PEPP will run at current levels during H1 (vs. previous guidance of “at least until the end of 2024), after which, it intends to reduce the PEPP portfolio by EUR 7.5bln per month on average. Lagarde, in her press conference, said that the committee members did not talk about rate cuts and they are in a data-dependent mode. Inflation projections were downgraded to 5.4% from 5.6% for 2023, 2024 cut to 2.7% from 3.2% and 2025 held at 1.9%. On the growth front, 2023 and 2024 projections were cut with GDP next year seen at just 0.8% with the 2025 forecast held steady at 1.5%.
  • The BOE also opted to stand pat on rates via a 6-3 vote with hawkish dissent once again. The central bank noted that economic developments have been muted, and overall language remained firm. Comments like “it was too early to conclude that services price inflation and pay growth were on a firmly downward path” suggested that the BOE leaned relatively hawkish for now.
  • US retail sales came in hot and bodes well for Q4 GDP growth, but there were some downward revisions to October. Headline rose 0.3%, above the -0.1% expected although the prior was revised down to -0.2% from -0.1%. The Core (ex-autos) retail sales rose by 0.2%, above the -0.1% forecast and accelerating from downwardly revised unchanged print (initially +0.1%).
  • US jobless claims for the week ending 9th December fell to 202k from 221k, short of the expected 220k. Continued claims (w/e 2nd Dec) ticked higher to 1.876mln from 1.856mln, but beneath the forecasted 1.887mln.
  • The Swiss National Bank also maintained the policy rate at 1.75% and the emphasis on selling foreign currency removed. There was no clear guidance for the next move but inflation is seen back below 2% for 2024. However, Chairman Jordan underscored the FX tweak and more pertinently said that December’s discussion did not cover rate reductions and that further ahead the current forecasts do not see any tightening.
  • Norges Bank defied consensus by triggering the hike that they flagged in November's meeting as "likely" to occur in December. The rate hike was primarily driven by NOK depreciation, and the statement does not rule out further tightening.

Macro events: Quad Witching, UK GfK (Dec), China Retail Sales (Nov), EZ/UK Flash PMIs (Dec), EZ Trade (Oct), US NY Fed Manufacturing (Dec)

Earnings: Darden Restaurants

In the news:  

  • AT&T to buy Rivian electric vehicles in pilot deal to cut cost, emissions (Reuters)
  • Yellen to Visit China Again in 2024, Focusing on ‘Difficult’ Topics (Bloomberg)
  • Berkshire Hathaway buys Occidental Petroleum shares worth about $588.7 mln (Reuters)
  • Costco posts upbeat first-quarter results on strong demand for cheaper groceries (Reuters)


For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.


The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region


Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.