Global Market Quick Take: Asia – April 9, 2024

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – April 9, 2024

Macro 6 minutes to read
Saxo Be Invested
APAC Research

Summary:  The NY Fed's 1-year inflation expectations remained at 3.0%, but 3-year expectations increased to 2.7% from 2.9%. The US 10-year yield rose to 4.42%. S&P 500 closed stable at 5,202, while Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.1%. Tesla rebounded 4.9%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 0.9%. The dollar stagnated despite high yields. AUDUSD climbed above 0.66 due to a 6% surge in iron ore prices.


Saxo’s Q2 2024 Outlook titled “The wasted year” is now out. You can read it here.

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events. 

Equities: The S&P 500 finished the session nearly unchanged at 5,202, while the Nasdaq 100 shed 0.1% to 18,100 in a muted session. Tesla rebounded 4.9% as investors reacted to Elon Musk’s announcement last Friday of an August unveiling of the long-awaited self-driving Robotaxi. Coinbase Global surged 6.7%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rallied by 0.9% to 38,893, while China’s CSI300 slid 0.9%. The Hang Seng Index climbed modestly by 0.1% to 16,733. Treasury Secretary Yellen said in Beijing that the U.S. is not seeking to decouple with China, but she reiterated her criticism of China exporting its overcapacity in green energy products to the U.S.

FX: The dollar was unable to go higher again despite yields being sticky on the 3-year inflation expectations surging higher. The weaker dollar pushed activity currencies higher, and NOK and AUD gained despite oil prices inching slightly lower on hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East. EURNOK drifted lower to 11.60 from highs of 11.66 yesterday. AUDUSD rose back above 0.66 with 6% gain in iron ore prices and broader commodities. EURUSD surged back above 1.0850 and 100DMA test comes in at 1.0874, while USDCAD was back below 1.36 and both ECB and Bank of Canada could show a dovish tilt at their meetings this week. USDJPY remains pinned below 152 and eyes will be on the US inflation release on Wednesday. Bitcoin was flying again, up over 3% to inch above $72k again but reversed lower in Asia, while Ethereum was up about 9% as Bitcoin halving draws closer.

Commodities: Crude oil prices reverted back to gains after a drop to sub-$90/barrel level on hopes of a ceasefire in the Middleeast conflict, as reports suggested that Hamas rejected the Israel ceasefire offer. EIA’s monthly oil report will be in focus today. Gold and copper were also at fresh highs. Gold demand remained underpinned by central bank demand from China and India, as well as retail demand from China. US CPI will be the next big focus.

Fixed income: The 10-year yield climbed another 2bps to 4.42% on Monday after the post-employment report spike last week.  At one point, the 10-year yield advanced to 4.46% in European hours but pulled back in the New York trading hours. The 2-year yield rose 4bps to 4.79%.

Macro:

  • Fed’s Kashkari was on the wires again, after his comment last week that no rate cuts may be needed this year. The Fed Minneapolis President the inflation rate is running around 3% and the Fed has to get back down to 2% suggesting that the inflation fight is not over. On labor market, he said that it is not red hot like last year, but still tight.
  • The NY Fed inflation expectations saw the 1-year measure unchanged at 3.0%, but the 3 year expectations rose to 2.9% to 2.7%.

    Macro events: EIA STEO

    Earnings: Bank of Ningbo, Hengli Petrochemical

    In the news:

  • Jamie Dimon Warns U.S. Might Face Interest-Rate Spike (WSJ)
  • US Treasury's Adeyemo warns 'malign' actors are using virtual assets (Reuters)
  • Biden’s Student-Loan Plan Seeks to Slash Debt for 30 Million Americans (WSJ)
  • China Has Too Much at Stake in Industry Push to Listen to Yellen (Bloomberg)
  • US to award Samsung up to $6.6 billion chip subsidy for Texas expansion, sources say (Reuters)
  • Shin-Etsu to bolster chip supply chain with first Japan plant in 56 years (Nikkei Asia)
  • TSMC expands U.S. investment to $65bn after securing $6.6bn grant (Nikkei Asia)

 

 

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration


 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Trading in financial instruments carries risk, and may not be suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region

Singapore
Singapore

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.