Happy Macro Thus 26 Sep 2019
APAC Global Macro Morning Call
O/N, Levels & Thoughts:
So it looks like the US markets could not care about the impeachment investigation launch by the democrats, as equities jumped yesterday alongside the release of the Trump/Zelensky transcript of their call.
We touched on KVP’s initial thoughts on what is going to be a massive campaign by the Democrats & potential strategic blunder, on yesterday’s Macro brief.
Trump talked up a trade agreement with China, which the markets potentially bought – worth bearing in mind, we are also bouncing back from three days of pullbacks.
The S&P closed up to 2985 +0.62% whilst the Nasdaq100 doubled that with a +1.21% lift to 7804. The US dollar continues be bid & the DXY closed at 99.04 continuing to make newer highs for the year.
Yields also saw a lift higher, as we saw UST get to 1.74%, the 2/10s is sitting at around +5bp. Bunds & JGBs are at c. -58bp & -26bp respectively.
Gold & silver had a bearish session sat -1.8% & -3.8% to 1506 & 17.97. Brent Crude closed at 62.39 down -1.1% for the session, US Crude inventories surprised to the upside +2.4m a vs. -0.3m e
We also had central bank rate decisions out of New Zealand & the Thailand, where both boards left rates unchanged at 1.00% & 1.50%, in-line with expectations.
- EZ: Private Loans, Money Suppler, ECB Economic Bulletin
- US: Pending Home Sales, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Trade Balance, Final 2Q GDP 2.0%e/p
- Plus FOMC members Bullard (who was advocating for a -50bp cut) & Clarida (who was part of consensus -25bp cut)
- Central Banks (SGT/HKT times)): BoJ’s Kuroda speaking (14:35) ECB’s Draghi (21:30) Careney (21:45)
- As well as rate decisions out of the Philippines & Mexico, with the market expecting a -25bp from both to 4.00% & 7.70% respectively