COVID-19 Vaccine: What is the timeline ? COVID-19 Vaccine: What is the timeline ? COVID-19 Vaccine: What is the timeline ?

COVID-19 Vaccine: What is the timeline ?

Christopher Dembik

Head of Macroeconomic Research

Summary:  There are good reasons for investors to wear rose-colored glasses right now. While economic risks remain elevated due to the wave of bankruptcies that is in sight, market optimism is rightly fueled by positive vaccine news and expectations of further monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank as early as this month. With the United Kingdom being the first country to grant emergency approval to Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine, we publish today an update on a timeline for when a vaccine might be available for the rest of the world.

UK gives vaccine go ahead - This morning, the United Kingdom has approved for use the Pfizer/Biontech Covid-19 vaccine, opening the door to the start of the vaccination campaign early next week. This is the first country to authorize a vaccine using mRNA technology (which is a new type of vaccine that transfers molecules of synthetic RNA into human cells, as opposed to DNA vaccines). The regulatory approval is still pending for the Pfizer vaccine in the European Union and the United States. The approval date is anticipated to be on 10 December in the United States when the FDA committee is due to meet to assess quality and safety of the new vaccine while it may takes a bit longer in the European Union, perhaps one or two more weeks. According to various European sources, it is expected that the European Medicines Agency will provide an opinion on conditional marketing authorization by 29 December, thereby allowing the vaccination campaign to start at some point in January next year.

Distribution information in the UK – As it is the case in other European countries, the United Kingdom will not make the vaccines mandatory and there will be no introduction of “vaccine passports” enabling holders to travel and move freely. The vaccination campaign will be in nine steps, first targeting residents in a care home for older adults and their carers, all those 80 years of age and over and frontline health and social care workers. For each individual, the vaccination process consists of a 2-dose schedule, with protection against COVID-19 being achieved 28 days after the initiation of the vaccination. Given that the United Kingdom is about to start the vaccination campaign next week, it is likely that herd immunity will be reached at the end of Q1 2021 and that almost all the population will be vaccinated by the end of Q2 2021. A new lockdown is therefore unlikely to happen next year, but the tier system (three-tier rules in England and five-tier system in Scotland) and other restrictions measures that have been recently enacted should remain in place, at least until herd immunity is achieved.

France secures 100M doses of vaccine – The French government indicated today that it has secured around 100M doses of vaccine from seven suppliers. It would make it possible to vaccinate around 50M people (over a population of 67M people), with each individual being given two doses of the vaccine. The initial plan, which is subject to change as it is widely criticized among population, is to vaccinate around 35 to 40M individuals in 2021 and the rest of the population in 2022. If confirmed, it is a very slow timeline response to the crisis. Most other developed countries seek to vaccinate almost all the population at some point next year. The first deliveries should come in mid-January, initially from AstraZeneca (around 4.4M doses) and Pfizer (3.5M doses). Other suppliers, such as Moderna, are expected to start delivery in next February.

Below, you can see the timeline for when vaccine might be available in the following countries: Australia, the EU, Japan and the USA. Based on current scenario, immunization in developed countries will happen at the latest in the third quarter, putting a definitive end to the health crisis, though economic scars might remain longer.


Estimated doses for herd immunity (around 60% of the population)

Total doses available from various suppliers

Approval date of first vaccine

Vaccination of a large part of the population




In Q1 2021

Q2-Q3 2021

European Union



End of Dec (Pfizer)

Q3 2021




In Q1 2021

End of Q2 2021

United Kingdom



2 Dec (Pfizer)

End of Q2 2021

United States



10 Dec (Pfizer)

End of Q2 2021

Sources: European Commission, UK Department of Health and Social Care, U.S. HHS, Australian Government Department of Health, Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.


The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Trading in financial instruments carries risk, and may not be suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region


Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.