Asia Market Quick Take – January 09, 2026

Asia Market Quick Take – January 9, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: US inflation expectations rises to 3.4%. China looks to approve H200 chips
• Equities: US Defence names outperformed while tech faltered; Alibaba gained 5%
• FX: USD up on strong labor data; AUD down on weak trade figures
• Commodities: Silver fell again on index rebalancing positioning
• Fixed income: Treasuries pared losses after Trump’s $200bn mortgage‑bond push

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• In November 2025, Japan's household spending rose 2.9% year-on-year, beating expectations of a 0.9% drop and reversing October’s 3.0% decline. Boosted by winter purchases, spending increased across major categories. Monthly spending surged 6.2%, surpassing the forecasted 2.7% and rebounding from October's 3.5% fall.
• In December 2025, US one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4%, while three- and five-year expectations remained at 3.0%. Inflation uncertainty increased, with price forecasts for gas, food, medical care, college, and rent declining. Labor market sentiment softened, showing a series low in job-finding, though income and spending expectations stayed stable.
• China is reportedly set to approve some NVIDIA H200 purchases this quarter, per Bloomberg sources. While the H200 is barred from state bodies and critical infrastructure, Beijing will permit its commercial use.
• The US trade deficit fell in October 2025 to $29.4 billion from September's $48.1 billion, beating the forecast of $58.1 billion. Tariffs altered trade flows, with imports down 3.2% to $331.4 billion and exports up 2.6% to $302 billion. Largest deficits were with Mexico, Taiwan, Vietnam, and China; the gap with the EU narrowed to $6.3 billion.
• For the week ending January 3rd, US initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 208,000, close to the 210,000 forecast and below last year's average. Continuing claims increased by 56,000 to 1,914,000, exceeding expectations of 1,900,000, indicating slow hiring and steady firing. Federal employee claims dropped by 333 to 479 in late December amid a government shutdown.
• In Q3 2025, US nonfarm productivity rose 4.9%, beating the 3% forecast and up from 4.1% in Q2. Output increased 5.4% with hours worked rising 0.5%. Manufacturing productivity grew 3.3%, with output up 2.6% and hours down 0.7%. Year-over-year, productivity rose 1.9%, below the previous 3.3% increase.

Equities: 

• US - US stocks were mixed Thursday as investors shifted from technology into cyclicals and defense amid uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s rate‑cut path and increased scrutiny of AI‑related spending. Dow rose 0.7% and the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.4% as major tech names extended losses. Nvidia fell 2.2%, Broadcom 3.2%, Micron 3.7%, and Oracle 1.7% as investors pared back AI‑infrastructure bets. Defense stocks rallied after President Trump proposed a $1.5 trillion military budget for 2027, while energy names Exxon Mobil (+3.7%) and Chevron (+2.6%) advanced as crude prices rebounded over 4%.
• EU - European equities slipped Thursday, extending a mild pullback after hitting record highs earlier in the week, as uncertainty over the ECB’s 2024 policy path and geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment. The Eurozone’s STOXX 50 fell 0.3% to 5,903, while the STOXX 600 eased 0.2% to 604. Tech stocks followed US weakness amid concerns that heavy AI‑related investment may not deliver near‑term returns, with ASML, Infineon, and Prosus down 2–4%. Banks outperformed, led by BNP Paribas up 3.5%. Defense names Leonardo, BAE Systems, and SAAB gained 2–6% after renewed hawkish rhetoric from the White House toward Greenland.
• HK - Hang Seng fell 310 points, or 1.2%, to 26,149 on Thursday, extending the prior session’s decline as most sectors weakened. Sentiment soured after sharp drops in U.S. futures and heavy selling in U.S.-listed China funds, while caution rose ahead of China’s December CPI and PPI data amid persistent deflation concerns. Financials slipped 1.5%, and Hong Kong tech stocks fell about 1% despite reports that Beijing may curb Nvidia H200 orders and push domestic AI chips. Property shares gained 1% after the PBoC signaled readiness for further easing. Major laggards included Sands China, China Reinsurance, Meituan, Kuaishou, and Techtronic.

Earnings this week:

• Friday: WD-40

FX:

• USD gained strength as labor market data showed resilience, with the four-week average of jobless claims hitting its lowest since April 2024. Rising short-term inflation expectations and a reduced trade deficit contributed to USD gains, alongside a sharp GDP growth revision from the Atlanta Fed to 5.4%. The ISM Services report also supported dollar optimism, pushing DXY to 98.30.
• EUR softened amid broad dollar strength, trading around 1.1660, dampened by mixed regional data.
• GBP showed volatility with a downward bias despite recovery from intraday lows; UK PM Starmer plans to exempt the City of London from EU alignment talks, influenced by financial sector lobbying. GBPUSD traded around 1.3435.
• JPY weakened, with USDJPY testing 157.00 on rising U.S. yields post-data.
• SNB minutes indicated readiness to intervene in FX markets and adjust monetary policy as needed. USDCHF traded slightly below 0.8000.
• AUD fell below $0.670, retreating from highs as investors weighed a potential February rate hike and weaker-than-expected trade data, with November's trade surplus shrinking to AUD 2.94 billion, below the AUD 4.9 billion forecast.

Commodities:

• Oil extended gains as markets weighed President Donald Trump’s warning to Iran and US moves to tighten control over Venezuela’s exports and energy sector, with WTI above $58 after a 3.2% jump and Brent near $62, while Citigroup expects annual index rebalancing to funnel cash back into oil, reinforcing bullish momentum.
• Silver fell a second day as investors positioned for commodity index rebalancing that will trigger billions in futures sales, sliding as much as 5.5% after nearly 4% previously, while gold steadied as passive funds sell precious‑metals futures from Thursday to match new weights—a routine process amplified by last year’s rallies.
• Gold steadied as traders weighed a stronger dollar and Friday’s US data that could set this year’s rate path, with bullion little changed near $4,475 after a 3.4% weekly rise and downside risks from slightly lower‑than‑expected jobless claims.

Fixed income:

• Treasury futures fell through the US morning on better‑than‑expected job data and higher oil, with traders eyeing Friday payrolls and a Supreme Court tariff ruling and heavy SOFR upside demand targeting Sep27, then long‑dated Treasuries trimmed losses and futures edged up after President Donald Trump called for $200bn of mortgage‑bond purchases to lower housing costs, while Japan’s 10‑year futures dipped after two days of gains.

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