Asia Market Quick Take – December 15, 2025

Asia Market Quick Take – December 15, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: Trump leans towards Warsh or Hasset for next Fed chair
• Equities:  US stocks sold off Friday, led by Broadcom
• FX: USD trades mixed as Trump mentions inflation is neutralised
• Commodities: Gold, silver steadies after running up 2.6% and 6% for the week
• Fixed income: Curve steepens with long bonds leading the sell off

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro: 

• Confidence among Japan’s large manufacturers hit a four-year high, with the index rising to 15 from 14 in September, while large non-manufacturers held at 34, near early-1990s highs.
•  Trump stated he is leaning towards Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett to lead the Fed and believes the next Fed Chair should consult him on interest rates.
•  Goolsbee dissented from this week’s cut, preferring to await more inflation data despite expecting 2026 cuts, while Paulson was more dovish, prioritising labour‑market risks and seeing inflation easing next year.
•  Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said policy is around neutral but she would prefer a slightly more restrictive stance to keep pressure on inflation, which remains above target and has been stuck near 3%.
•  San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly ultimately backed this week’s rate cut despite calling it a difficult decision.

Equities:

• US - Stocks fell sharply on Friday as tech names led by Broadcom (-11.4%) faced selloffs, with the S&P 500 down 1%, the Dow down 0.4%, and the Nasdaq down 1.8%. Margin concerns and caution around AI-linked stocks hit Nvidia, Oracle, AMD, and Micron. Despite Fed rate cuts, Cleveland Fed President signaled tighter policy preferences. Lululemon rose 9.6% on a positive outlook and CEO transition. Weekly, the S&P 500 lost 0.5%, the Dow rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.9%. Alphabet Inc., Google's parent company, is poised to report another substantial paper gain following SpaceX's stock sale, which values the private rocket company at approximately $800 billion.
• Hong Kong - HSI rose 1.8% to 25,977 on Friday after Wall Street hit records due to the Fed's rate cut. Mainland stocks rose as China pledged a "proactive" fiscal stance for 2026. Movers included China Hongqiao (-4%) and Kuaishou Tech (-2.5%). Despite the rise, Hong Kong shares fell 0.4% for the week on caution over China's upcoming data and fewer US rate cuts next year.  

Earnings this week:

• Monday: Abivax, Navan, Opus Global
• Tuesday: Lennar, Colruyt Group, Worthington Enterprises, Per Aarsleff Holding, WH Smith

FX:

• The dollar traded mixed against the G‑10 after President Donald Trump said inflation is “totally neutralised” and that a new Federal Reserve chair would seek lower interest rates, with the Bank of England and Bank of Japan meetings and US inflation data ahead this week. 
• AUDUSD slipped 0.2% to 0.6639 after a 0.2% Friday drop halved its third straight weekly advance, while NZDUSD fell 0.2% to 0.5795 after setting a third consecutive weekly high on Friday; the yen was steady ahead of Friday’s BoJ decision, where a rate increase is widely expected, with JGBs seen lower as they track long-dated US Treasuries.
• EURUSD was steady around 1.1741 after a 0.8% weekly rise, its best since July, with options positioning pointing to a move above $1.18 into next week’s ECB meeting, while GBPUSD was little changed at 1.3372 after a 0.3% weekly gain as recent data signalled the UK risks its first quarterly contraction since Labour returned to power.

Commodities:

• Oil held steady near two-month lows as glut fears outweighed geopolitical tensions, with Brent around $61 after Friday’s lowest close since 20 October and WTI below $58, and crude heading for an annual loss amid expectations of a growing surplus as OPEC+ and others boost output despite sluggish consumption growth.
• Gold steadied after a four-day advance as conflicting Federal Reserve comments curbed bets on further US easing next year; bullion hovered around $4,305 an ounce on Monday after a 2.6% weekly gain, with Wednesday’s rate cut drawing three dissents and debate persisting over the scope of 2026 easing, while by 7:47 a.m. in Singapore gold edged up 0.2% to $4,306.33, silver added 0.1% to $62.0140 after Friday’s 2.5% drop, platinum rose and palladium fell.

Fixed income:

• Treasuries ended Friday mixed with a steeper curve—extending the post-FOMC trend—as US morning futures block trades consistent with a roughly $1 million-per-DV01 steepener added momentum, long bonds led the sell-off pushing the 30-year yield to the highest since early September, front-end yields were anchored by prospects of more Fed cuts while the long end reflected still-elevated inflation, and key curve spreads widened to notable levels.

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