Asia Market Quick Take – 29 September, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to reopen Straits of Hormuz
• Equities: Nvidia announces $150b record share buyback
• FX: CAD extends losses; USDCAD up for the 13th time in 14 sessions
• Commodities: Gold hits seven-week low while oil remains elevated
• Fixed income: US Treasuries selloff deepens with 10 year at 5.25%

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, dashing ceasefire hopes and pushing oil and bond yields higher, while denying an Axios report that he offered Iran sanctions relief.
• Saudi Arabia resumed oil exports via the East-West pipeline after repairs, running at about 3.5 million bpd.
• UK shop price inflation eased to 1.4% y/y in September from 1.5%. Food inflation slowed to 2.5% on meat and dairy promotions, while fruit and confectionery stayed high. Non-food inflation dipped to 0.8% amid discounting. The BRC warned retailers cannot keep absorbing rising costs. CPI was 3.1% in August and is expected to exceed 4% in early 2027 as the Iran war lifts energy prices.
• The Dallas Fed’s Texas manufacturing index dipped to 9.8 in September from 11.6, as business conditions improved more slowly, uncertainty rose, and price and wage pressures intensified, even as employment growth strengthened and future expectations remained positive but less upbeat.
• Lagarde said inflation forecasts for 2027–28 have risen due to higher energy prices, though there is no sign yet of energy costs lifting wages. She called for a measured policy response. Markets now price in about 100 bps of ECB hikes by end-2027, with investors awaiting eurozone inflation data later this week for policy clues.

Equities: 

• US — US equities fell sharply on Monday as the US-Iran standoff stoked inflation fears. The S&P 500 dropped 0.8% to 7,683.69, wiping out September's gains, while the Nasdaq 100 lost 1.1% and the Dow Jones fell 0.7% (approximately 347 points). Nvidia (+3%) was a notable outperformer after announcing a $150b record share buyback and a cybersecurity industry initiative, with CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks also outperforming. Steel stocks fell as much as 2% after Trump announced a $15bn Iowa steel plant, with Cleveland-Cliffs down 8.3%. Getty Images collapsed 41% on reports it is exploring debtor-in-possession financing. In after-hours trading,Jefferies (JEF) fell despite reporting Q3 EPS of $1.08, beating the $1.00 consensus, as asset management revenue slumped over 50% year-on-year.
• EU — European equities closed mixed on Monday, broadly shrugging off the bond rout. The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed at 638.68, the DAX fell 0.1% to 25,374, the FTSE 100 edged down 0.1% to 10,684.88, and the CAC was fractionally higher. UK homebuilders surged — Persimmon +14.7%, Taylor Wimpey, Bellway, and Barratt Redrow all rose more than 10% — after the UK government announced a new first-time buyer loan programme described by JPMorgan as a potential "game changer." ASML led gains on the Stoxx 600, rising 1.0%, while Fresnillo was the FTSE 100's worst performer, falling 5.1%, and Rheinmetall dropped 1.6% in Frankfurt. Roche held its Pharma Day investor event, expressing confidence in its drug pipeline through 2030.
• Asia — Asian equities are under pressure on Tuesday morning, tracking Monday's US selloff, with the macro triple threat of rising yields, higher oil, and a firmer dollar weighing on risk appetite. South Korea's Kospi opened 0.7% lower at 6,844.41, extending Monday's sharp decline — the index had plunged 2.7% on Monday as markets reopened after a holiday, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix among the heaviest drags. The Topix fell approximately 1% in early Tokyo trade, with SRS Holdings down 4.3% and IHI flagging a ~¥14bn transaction loss. The STI closed up 0.3% on Monday at 5,729.02, led by UOB (+1.7%), DBS (+0.1%), and OCBC (+0.7%). The Hang Seng and broader China markets are set to open with a cautious tone, though the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.1% on Monday. Beijing's stimulus signals and a stronger PBOC yuan fixing are providing some support for China-linked names. Micron's earnings on Wednesday are a key focus for the semiconductor complex across the region.