Asia Market Quick Take – January 13, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: Federal prosecutors initiate criminal investigation against Powell
• Equities: S&P 500 nearly 7000; Golden Dragon index up 4.3% with Alibaba +10.5%
• FX: Dollar weakens amid Powell probe; NZD rises with strong metals market
• Commodities: Oil highest since early December; gold and silver at record highs
• Fixed income: Treasury futures edge higher after Fed's Williams rate remarks

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• Federal prosecutors initiated a criminal investigation involving Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which he characterized as a "pretext" used by Trump to urge the Fed to lower rates.
• President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran, effective immediately, while weighing Iran’s offer for nuclear diplomacy even as he leans toward authorizing new military strikes.
• Japan's bank lending grew by 4.4% in December, beating expectations and marking the fastest rise since April 2021. Total loans reached ¥660.6 trillion, with major banks leading the charge at 5.7%, regional banks at 4.1%, and shinkin banks at 1.4%, reflecting varied credit demand across sectors.
• UK retail sales grew 1% year-on-year in December, the weakest in seven months due to persistent cost pressures, compared to 3.1% in the previous year but above a 0.6% forecast. Non-food sales declined 0.3%, while food sales increased 3.1%. BRC's Helen Dickinson described the season as “drab,” with slow sales growth offset by post-holiday discounts.
• Switzerland’s consumer sentiment improved to -31 in January from -34, beating expectations. Economic and financial outlooks strengthened, inflation fears eased, though unemployment concerns rose slightly, marking the best reading since early 2025.
• Australia’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell 1.7% to 92.9 in January, as one-year economic outlook dropped 6.5%. Household finances improved slightly, but unemployment concerns rose. Westpac’s Mathew Hassan cited growing caution and inflation fears.

Equities: 

• US - U.S. stocks rebounded Monday after an early sell-off, with the S&P 500 up 0.2% to a record high and the Nasdaq rising 0.3%, led by tech and Walmart. The Dow recovered 86 points after plunging nearly 500 earlier. Markets initially fell on news of a DOJ criminal probe into Fed Chair Powell, which Trump called a “pretext” to push rate cuts. Bank shares slumped as Trump proposed capping credit card rates at 10% for a year, with Capital One down 7% and Citigroup off 3%. In after hours, Alphabet’s Google has announced a multi-year deal with Apple to power its AI with Gemini, including Siri.
• EU - European stocks closed slightly higher Monday, extending last week’s gains as optimism over a supportive macro backdrop outweighed geopolitical risks and U.S. political pressure on the Fed. The STOXX 50 rose 0.2% to 6,010, while the STOXX 600 added 0.2% to 610. Industrials and financials led, with Siemens, Airbus, Deutsche Bank, and BBVA up 1–4%. Tech shares advanced despite concerns over AI returns, with Prosus jumping 3.7%, and ASML and Infineon also higher. Pharmaceuticals lagged, as Sanofi and argenx declined.
• HK - Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 1.4% to 26,608 Monday, extending prior gains. Sentiment improved as the Shanghai Composite hit a decade high and deflation risks eased, fueling hopes for stronger demand and Beijing support measures. Investors also stayed cautious ahead of key Chinese data, including trade and Q4 GDP. Top movers included Meituan, JD Health, Xiaomi, Tencent, and Zijin Gold. Overnight, U.S. listed Chinese stocks surged, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index gaining 4.3%, its largest rise in three months. Kingsoft Cloud jumped 19.96%, Zhihu rose 18.03%, while Baozun, Alibaba, and Tuya increased by 10.84%, 10.53%, and 9.64%, respectively.

Earnings this week:

• Tuesday: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon, Delta Air Lines
• Wednesday: Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo
• Thursday: First Horizon, TSMC, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock
• Friday: No notable earnings

FX:

• Dollar Index dropped due to concerns over Fed independence amid an investigation into Chair Powell. Market focus shifts to Tuesday’s CPI and US earnings season, while geopolitical tensions and Trump’s comments on credit card rates weigh on the Dollar.
• In the G10 FX market, currencies excluding the JPY strengthened, benefiting from the Dollar’s weakness. NZD outperformed, with NZDUSD hitting a high of 0.5770, supported by robust performance in the metals market, as spot gold achieved new all-time highs.
• GBP, CHF, AUD, EUR, and CAD registered similar gains, with the CHF emerging as the preferred safe haven as the Dollar lost favor, while the JPY faced pressure from speculation over Prime Minister Takachi’s plans for a snap election. USDJPY saw a range between 157.52 and 158.21.
• ECB's Villeroy dismissed rate hike expectations this year, noting possible Dollar weakness if Fed independence remains challenged. EURUSD fluctuated between 1.1622 and 1.1698.

Commodities:

• Oil hit its highest since early December after President Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on goods from countries “doing business” with Iran, with WTI nearing $60 after a 6% three-session jump and Brent closing just below $64 on Monday, though he gave no details despite saying it was effective immediately.
• Gold steadied near $4,588 after Monday’s 2% surge amid concerns over Fed independence following the Trump administration’s criminal indictment threat, with spot gold down 0.2% and silver off 1.2% after Monday’s 6% spike, while Chair Powell said it should be seen in the broader context of ongoing pressure.

Fixed income:

• Treasuries ended Monday with modest losses that steepened the curve as bearish sentiment from news of a federal criminal probe into the US central bank persisted despite solid demand at the 3- and 10-year auctions; the year’s first coupon cycle wraps Tuesday with a 30-year reopening. Treasury futures edged higher after New York Fed President John Williams said rates are “well positioned” to return inflation to 2%, and Japan’s markets reopen after Monday’s holiday.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.
The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.