Asia Market Quick Take – December 9, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: Trump allows NVIDIA to export H200 chips to China and other countries
• Equities: Warner Bros up 4.4% on Paramount’s all cash $30 bid, topping Netflix’s offer
• FX: Dollar gains ahead of central bank meetings; Yen drops due to earthquake
• Commodities: Oil steadied after its biggest drop in nearly three weeks
• Fixed income: Treasury yields hit a two-month high

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• US President Trump stated that he informed Chinese President Xi the US will permit NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers in China and other countries. He added that the same policy will apply to AMD (AMD), Intel (INTC), and other leading US companies.
• US President Trump announced a USD 12 billion aid package for farmers, stating his intention to support the agricultural sector. He criticized the rising costs of farming equipment and indicated plans to remove regulations to help lower these prices.
• UK retail sales grew 1.2% year-on-year in November 2025, the slowest in six months, as consumers awaited Finance Minister Reeves' budget and Black Friday sales disappointed. Food sales increased by 3.0%, while non-food sales rose by 0.1%, rebounding from a 7.9% decline a year earlier.
• In October 2025, Australia saw a 6.4% monthly drop in building permits, totaling 15,832 units, reversing September's 11.1% increase, and aligning with preliminary estimates. Permits for private-sector dwellings excluding houses fell 13.1%, while house approvals dipped 2.1%.

Equities: 

• US -US stocks closed lower Monday as investors weighed the Fed’s 2026 policy outlook. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, Dow 0.4%, and Nasdaq 0.2%, with a Wednesday rate cut still seen as 90% likely despite sticky inflation. Warner Bros. Discovery jumped 4.4% after Paramount Skydance’s $30 bid topped Netflix’s $27.75 offer; Paramount surged 9%, Netflix dropped 3.4%. Confluent soared 29.1% on IBM’s $11bn acquisition plan, while Tesla slid 3.4% after a downgrade and Carvana leapt 12.1% on S&P 500 inclusion. Broadcom hit record highs (+2.8%) amid reports of Microsoft chip talks.
• EU - The STOXX 50 finished Monday almost flat at 5,725, while the STOXX 600 dipped 0.1% as investors stayed cautious ahead of major central bank meetings, including the Fed. Markets expect a 25bp cut, with attention on updated FOMC projections amid uncertainty over the 2026 policy path. ECB’s Isabel Schnabel signalled comfort with expectations of a possible rate hike. Corporate movers included Unilever, down 1.9% after spinning off Magnum Ice Cream; Ageas up 0.6% on a $1.9bn deal to buy AG Insurance’s remaining stake; TKMS rose 2.9% despite a muted 2026 outlook; and UBS gained 1.8% on reports of 10,000 job cuts by 2027.
• HK - Hang Seng fell 320 points (‑1.2%) to 25,765 on Monday, erasing recent gains as financials, property and consumer stocks dragged. Deflation concerns lingered ahead of mainland CPI and PPI data, while investors awaited signals from a potential Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference on 2026 policy. Losses were partly cushioned by reports of eased regulatory measures allowing top financial firms to relax capital and leverage limits. Trade data also helped: November exports beat forecasts after a U.S. tariff truce, and imports rose for a sixth month. Pop Mart plunged 8.4%, Zijin Gold 4.3%, Anta Sports 2.7%, while Baidu jumped 3.4% on AI chip spin‑off plans.

Earnings this week:

• Tuesday: AutoZone, Campbell's, GameStop, Cracker Barrel
• Wednesday: Oracle, Adobe, Chewy, Synopsys, Nordson
• Thursday: Costco, Broadcom, RH (Restoration Hardware), Lululemon
• Friday: Quanex Building Products, Johnson Outdoors

FX:

• USD saw slight gains on Monday ahead of the FOMC meeting, where a rate cut is expected. Inflation expectations remained steady, but there was household financial pessimism alongside improved labor market outlooks. DXY rose slightly above 99.
• EUR initially declined but recovered to 1.1640 following hawkish remarks from ECB's Schnabel, who expressed confidence in expectations of a future rate hike, though the timing, particularly for a first rate hike in June 2026, remains uncertain.
• GBP stabilized around 1.3320 due to a lack of major drivers and comments from BoE's Taylor that did not significantly impact the outlook.
• NZD gained from positive Chinese export data, although imports were below expectations.
• JPY dropped as tsunami advisories were issued after an earthquake, with USDJPY rising 0.4% to 155.99. Japan's economy shrank last quarter, justifying Prime Minister Takaichi's recent stimulus package.

Commodities:

• Oil stabilised after its steepest drop in nearly three weeks, with WTI near $59 and Brent above $62, as traders await the US EIA’s Tuesday outlook and IEA/OPEC reports on Thursday for confirmation of a supply glut amid production outpacing subdued demand.
• Gold steadied around $4,193 an ounce as traders looked beyond an almost certain US rate cut to guidance for next year, while Treasury yields rose on Monday amid auctions and ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision that could shape 2026 expectations; silver edged down 0.1% to $58.1045, and palladium and platinum were flat.

Fixed income:

• Treasury yields rose to the highest in over two months ahead of a Fed decision that could reshape 2026 expectations, then pared after a $58bn three‑year sale cleared at a lower‑than‑forecast yield amid strong demand, with a US‑morning sell‑off—driven by fading expectations for rate cuts next year—pushing yields across tenors to two‑to‑three‑month highs before dip‑buyers steadied futures; traders see roughly a 90% chance of a third straight 25bp cut to 3.50%–3.75%, while Japan’s Ministry of Finance readies a ¥2.4tn September 2030 auction amid insurer caution on the risk of higher local yields.

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