Asia Market Quick Take – December 12, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: US initial jobless claims rose by 44,000 to 236,000
• Equities: Broadcom drops 5%, Lululemon jumps 11.5% after earnings released
• FX: CHF rose as SNB held rate steady, lowering inflation forecasts
• Commodities: Gold steady amid easing prospects; silver, platinum slightly lower
• Fixed income: Treasuries rise post-FOMC, curve bull steepens further

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• US initial jobless claims rose by 44,000 to 236,000 in the week ending December 6, 2025, exceeding the 220,000 forecast and marking the largest weekly increase since March 2020. Continuing claims fell to 1,838,000, the lowest since April 2025, below the 1,950,000 forecast.
• Swiss National Bank held its policy rate at 0%, maintaining a 0.25-point penalty on excess sight deposits, and remains ready to intervene in forex markets. Inflation dropped to 0.0% in November. The SNB projects inflation at 0.2% in 2025, 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 if the rate stays unchanged. Despite strong global Q3 growth, Swiss GDP fell due to reduced pharmaceutical exports. SNB expects GDP growth to be under 1.5% in 2025 and around 1% in 2026, with a modest rise in unemployment.
• The US trade deficit decreased to $52.8 billion, the lowest since June 2020, from $59.3 billion in August. Exports increased 3% to $289.3 billion, led by nonmonetary gold and pharmaceuticals. Imports rose 0.6% to $342.1 billion, with growth in pharmaceuticals and nonmonetary gold. The largest deficits were with Ireland ($18.2 billion), Mexico, and the EU ($17.8 billion each), while the deficit with China narrowed to $11.4 billion.

Equities: 

• US - Dow climbed 1.4% to a record, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq trimmed losses to 0.3%. Following the Fed's 25 bps rate cut, investors shifted from tech to cyclicals and value stocks. Visa rose 6.2% after an upgrade, with Mastercard and American Express up 4.6% and 2.5%. Banks outperformed, while tech stocks lagged; Oracle fell 10.8% on weak revenue, and chips makers Nvidia, Broadcom, and Applied Materials decreased around 1.6%–1.8%. After market, Broadcom shares dropped 5% as it forecast higher revenue but warned of lower margins from increased AI sales. Lululemon shares jumped 11.5% after hours on FY outlook increase to $11 Billion.
• JP - Nikkei 225 fell 0.9% to 50,149 and the Topix declined 0.94% to 3,357, reversing earlier gains due to a sharp drop in SoftBank Group. SoftBank dropped over 7% after Oracle fell over 11% post revenue miss and weak guidance. Additionally, Japanese stocks faced pressure from expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike next week.
• GE - DAX rose 0.6% to 24,278, its highest since November 12, driven by positive sentiment from the Fed's rate cut. Daimler Truck (+4.2%) gained on a BofA ‘Buy’ rating and a €1 billion cost-cutting plan. Brenntag (+4.4%), BASF (+3.2%), and Siemens (+2.9%) were other notable gainers. Munich Re increased 2.2% after confirming its profit target. E.ON fell 3.3% due to regulations, while SAP (-0.7%) and Infineon (-0.4%) also dipped.
• HK - Hang Seng dipped 0.5% to 25,530 on Thursday as tech and consumer stocks declined. China's market fell due to Mexico's new tariffs on Chinese exports, effective January 2026. Concerns arose over Beijing delaying property stimulus, with major steps expected in H2 2026. Investors anticipate China's November credit data and Hong Kong's Q3 industrial and unemployment figures. Major decliners included SMIC (-2.7%), Tencent Music (-2.6%), Sands China (-2.3%), China Hongqiao (-2.0%), and China Unicom (-1.2%).

Earnings this week:

• Friday: Quanex Building Products, Johnson Outdoors

FX:

• USD continued its decline after a larger-than-expected Fed rate cut, compounded by higher-than-expected initial jobless claims of 236k, linked to seasonal Thanksgiving effects. Treasuries rallied, lowering yields and further weakening the Dollar Index to 98.133 from 98.763 highs.
• CHF strengthened as the SNB held its Policy Rate at 0.00% and revised 2026-2027 inflation forecasts lower. Chairman Schlegel's comments on NIRP uncertainty supported CHF gains, pushing USDCHF to around 0.7950 amid broad USD weakness.
• EUR gained from dollar weakness, allowing EURUSD to stabilize around the 1.1700 level.
• GBP experienced volatility, ending slightly higher after unsuccessfully holding above 1.3400 ahead of monthly GDP data.
• JPY strengthened, with USDJPY dipping below 155.00, influenced by softer US yields and rising expectations of a BoJ rate hike.
• AUDUSD remained flat as disappointing job growth countered potential gains from USD selling. Full-time employment in Australia for November reversed October’s increase, with a loss of 56.5k jobs compared to a prior gain of 55.3k.

Commodities:

• Oil rebounded from a near two‑month low amid broader market optimism, with WTI towards $58 after a 1.5% drop and Brent above $61.
• Gold was steady around $4,280 after a three‑day rise, supported by prospects of further US easing following this week’s cut; the Fed left the door open to more cuts next year even as swaps price in two reductions in 2026 versus one signalled by policymakers. Silver hovered near a record, down 0.1% at $63.50, while platinum and palladium edged lower.

Fixed income:

• US Treasuries twist‑steepened, the long end lagging the front and belly ahead of a solid $22bn 30‑year reopening that stopped slightly through WI, with front‑end and belly gains extending the post‑FOMC steepening after initial jobless claims printed 236k vs 220k. Japan’s 10‑year bonds paused a three‑day rise ahead of a MoF–primary dealers meeting, and Treasuries edged higher with Fed speakers due Friday.

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