Asia Market Quick Take – 08 April, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: US and Iran agree to a 2-week ceasefire
• Equities: S&P 500 futures gained 2.2%, Euro Stoxx 50 futures +5% on ceasefire deal
• FX: Dollar falls on Pakistan’s Iran extension request; EUR, AUD strengthen
• Commodities: WTI plunged as much as 19% below $100
• Fixed income: US Treasuries rallied, led by short-dated notes

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• Trump and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire less than two hours before a deadline to “wipe out” Iran’s civilization, contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about one-fifth of the world’s oil.
• Trump said Iran sent a 10-point proposal as a “workable basis” for talks to be finalized within two weeks. Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for that period if attacks stop and transit is coordinated with its Armed Forces, and Israel has reportedly joined the ceasefire.
• Median year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.4% in March 2026 from 3%, driven by higher expected gasoline (9.4%), food (6%), and rent (7.1%) prices. Three-year expectations ticked up to 3.1%, five-year stayed at 3%, and while spending and income views were steady, consumers grew more pessimistic about future finances.
• The Economic Optimism Index fell to 42.8 in April 2026 from 47.5, its lowest since June 2024 and eighth month below 50, as Middle East tensions and higher gas prices hurt sentiment. The Six-Month Outlook dropped to 38.5, Personal Financial Outlook to 50.2, and confidence in Federal Economic Policies to 39.8, signaling rising skepticism about the government’s economic management.

Equities: 

• US: US stock futures surged overnight, with S&P 500 futures up 2.2% and Dow futures rising 930 points or 2% as of 8:05 p.m. ET following the Iran ceasefire announcement. The S&P 500 ended Tuesday up 0.1% at 6,616.85, erasing an earlier 1.2% drop, while the Nasdaq 100 was little changed and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%. Communication services names outperformed during regular trading, with Alphabet shares adding 1.8% amid a deal for Broadcom to develop and supply Tensor Processing Units. In after-hours trading, Sherwin-Williams shares rose 7.1% to $336.20, Keysight Technologies gained 6.6% to $320.45, while energy names declined with EQT Corp falling 5.5%, Coterra Energy down 5.9%, and Diamondback Energy dropping 5.3%.
• EU: Euro Stoxx 50 futures gained 5% on US-Iran ceasefire agreement this morning. European equity markets declined on Tuesday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index falling 1%, or 6.04 points to 590.59, the biggest drop since falling 1.1% on March 26. ASML Holding contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.1%, while Leonardo had the largest drop, falling 8.1%. The FTSE 100 fell 0.8% to 10,348.79, with AstraZeneca contributing the most to the decline, decreasing 2.3%, and Melrose Industries having the largest drop, falling 4.3%. The DAX fell 1.1%, or 246.49 points to 22,921.59 in Frankfurt, with Heidelberg Materials having the largest drop, falling 4.1%.
• Asia: Asian equity markets surged in early Wednesday trading following the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Japan's Topix rose 3%, while the Nikkei 225 gained 4.1% to 55,618.89, led by chip and metals stocks with Advantest up 8.8% and Mitsui Kinzoku 8.3% higher. Furukawa Electric rose 14% after being raised to overweight at Morgan Stanley, and Kioxia shares climbed 13% on reports it is considering paying dividends. South Korea's Kospi soared 6.2% to 5,837.30, with the Korea Exchange activating sidecars to halt program buying after Kospi 200 futures jumped more than 6%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 2.9%, with Aristocrat Leisure advancing 5.3% and Macquarie Group up 7.1%, while energy names declined with Woodside Energy falling 6.7%, Beach Energy down 6.5%, and New Hope Corp declining 11%. Japanese energy stock Index fell 8.3%.

Earnings this week:

• Wednesday: Delta

FX:

• USD fell after Pakistan asked President Trump to extend his Iran deadline by two weeks, keeping G-10 FX volatile but with options sentiment broadly steady. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.3%.
• EURUSD rose 0.5% to 1.1595 as ECB’s Wunsch warned rates may need to rise multiple times if the Iran war drags on; EURGBP is up 0.1% to 0.8726. EURSEK jumped 0.8% to 10.9906 after Swedish core inflation slowed to its weakest in more than four years, reducing pressure on the Riksbank to hike.
• USDJPY slipped 0.1% to 159.56 amid ongoing intervention risk, even as Japan’s PM Takaichi continues to seek talks with Iran’s president and Trump.
• AUDUSD reversed earlier losses to climb 0.8% to 0.6970 despite Australia’s services PMI dropping sharply to 46.3, while USDCAD edged down to 1.3896 as the loonie firmed slightly.

Commodities:

• Oil prices plunged, with WTI slumping as much as 19% and Brent falling as much as 16% to below $92 a barrel after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that will help resume oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Gold advanced as much as 3.1% to above $4,850 an ounce, extending a 1.2% gain in the previous session, following the US-Iran ceasefire agreement.
• LME copper rose 2% as the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire.

Fixed income:

• Treasuries surged, with short-dated notes leading the jump as plunging oil prices fueled hopes that slower inflation may pave the way for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts. The two-year yield dropped 7 basis points to 3.72% in early Asia trading Wednesday, while the 10-year counterpart fell 4 basis points to 4.26%.
• Japanese Government Bonds rose in price terms in the morning Tokyo session on easing inflation concerns spurred by the ceasefire agreement. The Japan 20-year yield fell as much as 7 basis points to 3.26%. 

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