Asia Market Quick Take – 24 March, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: Trump postponed strike on Iran power plant
• Equities: US rallied and Asian markets rebounded as Trump delayed Iranian strikes
• FX: USD weakened as Trump delayed Iran strikes; GBP rose, JPY strengthened
• Commodities: Gold extends nine‑day losing streak near $4,400; oil plunges 10%
• Fixed income: Treasuries up; front end leads on cuts repricing into 2027

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• Trump delayed strikes on Iran power plants, citing talks to stabilise oil prices, though Tehran denied negotiations. Israel continued attacks on Iran. Markets anticipate reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint under Iran's control.
• Japan's annual inflation dropped to 1.3% in February 2026, the lowest since March 2022. Food, transport, and clothing inflation slowed, while energy costs fell sharply. Inflation rose for household items, communications, and recreation. Core inflation fell to 1.6%, below the central bank's 2% target. Monthly CPI decreased by 0.2%, marking a three-month decline.
• Australia's Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in March 2026 from 51.0 in February, signalling near stabilisation. Output dipped, new orders fell, but export demand surged. Optimism remained, though confidence hit a 20-month low due to demand and supply chain concerns. Manufacturing saw significant job losses, with input costs and selling price inflation rising sharply.
• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.11 in February 2026 from an upwardly revised +0.20 in January, suggesting economic growth decreased in the month. Production-related indicators contributed -0.01, down from +0.21 in January. The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution was -0.01, unchanged from January. Employment-related indicators contributed -0.10, down from +0.02 in January. The personal consumption and housing category's contribution was +0.01, up from -0.02.
• New Zealand's central bank will overlook a temporary energy price spike but may raise rates if inflation risks persist. Governor Anna Breman stressed the shock's duration is crucial, with rates possibly increasing if inflation expectations shift. The RBNZ has held rates at 2.25% since November. Breman suggested targeted fiscal support to address rising uncertainty.

Equities: 

• US - US equity markets rallied sharply last night following President Trump's announcement to postpone military strikes on Iran. The S&P 500 rose 1.2% to 6,581.00, while the Nasdaq increased 1.4% to 21,946.76, and the Dow gained 1.4% to 46,208.47. This "relief rally" was driven by eased geopolitical tensions and falling oil prices. All 11 S&P 500 sectors traded positively, with consumer discretionary, materials, and technology leading the gains. The "Magnificent Seven" stocks rose 1.7%, with Nvidia leading the way. Estée Lauder is nearing a merger with Spanish beauty group Puig to create a company worth over $40 billion, though its shares fell 8% to $79.05 following the news. Concurrently, Tokio Marine's ADR jumped 13%, fuelled by a $1.8 billion investment from Berkshire Hathaway.
• EU - European equity indices rose firmly on Monday after the US delayed strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, signalling potential easing in Middle East tensions. The STOXX 50 increased by 1.2% to 5,566, while the STOXX 600 went up 0.6% to 577. The US's move aimed to lower energy prices, boosting risk-sensitive sectors previously affected by stagflation concerns. Notable stock gains included Santander, UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, and ASML, which rose over 3% and 4%, respectively, along with Siemens Energy, which increased nearly 5% due to lower LNG costs.
• Asia - On Monday, Asian markets faced sharp declines due to escalating US-Iran tensions, prompting investors to adopt risk-off strategies. The Kospi dropped 6.5% to 5,405.75, with major contributors like Samsung Electronics and Hybe suffering significant losses. The Hang Seng fell 3.5% to 24,382.47, led by declines in commerce and industry stocks. Among the biggest decliners was Laopu Gold, which fell 8.6% to reach a 52-week low despite anticipating strong Q1 profits and sales. Meanwhile, Chinese electric vehicle makers performed well, with BYD and Geely both rising 2.5% as high oil prices spurred investor optimism for clean-energy vehicles. Similarly, the China Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 declined by 3.6% and 3.3%, respectively. On Tuesday, Asian markets rebounded sharply following President Trump's announcement to postpone attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, boosting risk appetite. The Kospi opened 4.3% higher, and Nikkei 225 gained as much as 2.3%, driven by electronics and banks.

Earnings this week:

• Tuesday - Braze, Noah Holdings, Concentrix, MaxCyte, Absci, Achieve Life Sciences, Xiaomi, Haidilao
• Wednesday - Pinduoduo, Paychex, Chewy, Cintas, Beyond Meat, Baozun, Ondas Networks, Popmart, Kuaishou
• Thursday - Veritone, Designer Brands, Oxford, Commercial Metals Company, Meituan
• Friday - Carnival Corporation, The Metals Company, Super League, AutoPlus, Ping an, BYD

FX:

• USD weakened against most G10 currencies, with the Dollar Index dropping 0.34% to 96.00 due to President Trump's announcement of postponing strikes against Iran and ongoing talks, hinting at reduced geopolitical tensions.
• Among the G10 currencies, GBP rose 0.67% to $1.3429, marking its fourth gain in six sessions, while JPY saw USD drop 0.49% to 158.44, struggling to breach the 160 level. EUR gained 0.37% to $1.1615, its highest since March 2026. The NZD also rose on improved risk sentiment, though minor weakening poses inflation risks.
• Beyond the G10, MXN strengthened by 0.69% against USD to 17.7855, its largest gain since March 2026.

Commodities:

• Oil stabilised after Monday’s 10% slump as President Donald Trump stepped back from strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, with WTI edging higher near $89 amid a volatile session as Trump claimed talks to end the four‑week conflict—denied by Tehran as Israeli attacks continued—while Brent fell 11%.
• Gold rose as much as 0.9% in early trade after a near 2% drop extended its nine‑day losing streak. Silver erased losses of over 10%, and in SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) around 100,000 July $360 puts traded near $10.50, a position that breaks even on a further 13% bullion drop by mid‑summer as three‑month implied volatility and put skew hit the highest in at least six years.

Fixed income:

• Treasuries climbed, led by the front end, after President Trump said US strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure were postponed following “productive conversations,” with markets unwinding Fed‑hike premia, repricing cuts toward year‑end and into 2027, and finishing near the highs. Australian and New Zealand bonds followed peers higher as lower oil eased inflation concerns, while Japan readies inflation data and a 40‑year JGB auction.

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