Asia Market Quick Take – 23 March, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: Trumps issues 48-hour ultimate to Iran to open Straits of Hormuz
• Equities: Supermicro -33% after chip smuggling charge; Stocks lower on war escalation
• FX: SEK outperforms; JPY declines; USD benefits as market shifts
• Commodities: Gold extends losses, down 3.8% to $4,319
• Fixed income: OIS turned more hawkish, pricing about 7bp of hikes by December

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to open the Straits of Hormuz or face an attack on Iranian power plants. Iran has signaled it will not back down and will hit energy and IT infrastructure belonging to the US and Israel.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that if President Trump targets Iran’s energy facilities, the Strait of Hormuz will close until repairs are made, and Israeli power plants and infrastructure will be targeted.
• Canadian retail sales are estimated to have risen by 0.9% in February 2026, following a 1.1% increase in January. Motor vehicle sales rose by 2%, while gasoline sales fell by 0.4%. Retail turnover grew by 1.5% year-on-year in February.
• The UK's order book balance improved to -27 in March 2026, surpassing expectations. Industrial orders are declining at the slowest rate since September. Output expectations rose to -3, and price growth eased to +12. CBI economist Cameron Martin warned of rising energy costs and supply chain disruptions due to the Middle East conflict.

Equities: 

• US - The S&P 500 dropped 1.5%, the Nasdaq 100 slid 1.8% to six‑month lows and the Dow lost 0.8%. The risk appetite weakened further with the Pentagon preparing to send more Marines to the region, while the Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75%. Tech names lagged, with Micron down 4.8% and Supermicro plunging 33% on chip smuggling charge. S&P futures fell on Monday morning after Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to open the Straits of Hormuz or face attacks on energy infrastructure.
• EU - The Eurozone’s STOXX 50 dropped 1.9% to its lowest since September, while the STOXX 600 slid 1.7% to 574. Tech names lagged, with ASML and SAP losing over 3.5%, mirroring global tech weakness. Banks also tumbled as sovereign bond yields jumped, pressuring balance sheets—UniCredit sank nearly 4%, while BNP Paribas, Intesa Sanpaolo and Nordea fell more than 2%. Hawkish ECB commentary pushed traders to price in two rate hikes this year, with the first possibly as soon as next week.
• Asia - Asian markets opened sharply lower on Monday, March 23, 2026, as the Iran conflict intensified into its fourth week, leading to heightened volatility. The KOSPI plunged 4.73%, marking the worst performance in the region, triggering a "sidecar" circuit breaker due to a 5% slump in KOSPI 200 futures. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix spearheaded declines amid early selling by foreign and local funds. The Nikkei 225 fell 3.89%, pressured by Trump's threats regarding the Strait of Hormuz, while TOPIX saw significant declines in electronics and banking sectors. The ASX 200 dipped 1.23%, and MSCI Asia Pacific dropped 1.1%. Meanwhile, Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng remained flat in early trading. The ongoing Iran war, volatile oil prices, hawkish Fed expectations, and falling US Treasury yields contributed to the risk-off sentiment across Asian markets.

Earnings this week:

• Monday - Bionano Genomics, AGI, WeRide, BiolineRx, Lithium Argentina, PPHC
• Tuesday - Braze, Noah Holdings, Concentrix, MaxCyte, Absci, Achieve Life Sciences, Xiaomi
• Wednesday - Pinduoduo, Paychex, Chewy, Cintas, Beyond Meat, Baozun, Ondas Networks, Popmart, Kuaishou
• Thursday - Veritone, Designer Brands, Oxford, Commercial Metals Company, Meituan
• Friday - Carnival Corporation, The Metals Company, Super League, AutoPlus, Ping an, BYD

FX:

• On Friday, the G10 currency pairs saw significant movements with SEK as the standout performer, strengthening by 0.59% against USD to 9.3428, aligning with earlier reports of a 1.26% gain. NOK also showed strength, appreciating by 0.82% to 9.5626. CHF managed modest gains, ending at 0.7880, benefiting from safe-haven flows. Conversely, JPY emerged as the worst performer, weakening to 159.23 per USD. AUD and NZD faced declines, with AUD down 0.90% to 0.7023 and NZD falling 0.72% to 0.5832 amidst risk-off sentiment. GBP dropped 0.67%, trading below 1.3350 due to surging oil prices and bullish USD sentiment.
• As trading commenced on Monday, JPY remained under pressure, unchanged at 159.23, with Japan's top currency official indicating potential government intervention. Market sentiment favoured USD broadly due to geopolitical concerns and safe-haven demand.

Commodities:

• Gold swung after its steepest weekly decline since 1983, as the Middle East conflict moved into its fourth week and US–Iran tensions intensified. The metal fell a further 3% to $4,331, with oil‑fuelled inflation risks eroding expectations of near‑term rate cuts and weighing on the non‑yielding asset for an eighth consecutive session.
• Oil wavered after a brief uptick as investors weighed President Donald Trump’s demand that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s threat of further reprisals amid the Middle East war, with Brent little changed below $112 a barrel and WTI near $98, as Trump warned Iran to fully open the waterway within 48 hours or face strikes on power plants and Tehran vowed to target key infrastructure across the region if he followed through.

Fixed income:

• Treasuries extended early losses in a bear‑steepener, with yields ending Friday higher by double digits across the curve after a Wall Street Journal report that the Pentagon will send three warships and thousands of Marines to the Middle East, a headline that rippled through rates, buoyed oil futures and coincided with a renewed sell‑off in gilts. Fed‑dated OIS turned more hawkish, implying about 7bp of hikes by December—down from intraday peaks that briefly priced roughly a 50% chance of a 25bp move at the October FOMC—with the tone staying firm through the US morning as the deployment headlines circulated.

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