Asia Market Quick Take – 15 June, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: US–Iran agrees to peace deal; Deal to be signed 19^th June
• Equities: SpaceX surged 19% on debut; S&P futures up 0.8% on US Iran deal
• FX: US-Iran deal hurts dollar; risk currencies rally, yen notably underperforms
• Commodities: WTI plunges towards $80 and gold gaps up to $4,300
• Fixed income: Treasuries rally as 10 year yield nears 4.4%

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• US and Iran agreed to a peace deal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz by week’s end, allowing Persian Gulf oil shipments to resume and lifting the US blockade on Iranian ports. The pact reportedly includes dismantling Iran’s nuclear program in return for economic incentives, with full details to follow a signing in Switzerland.
• The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 48.9 in early June 2026 from 44.8 in May, beating expectations of 46, with the rebound helped by easing gasoline prices and strongest among lower-income consumers. Views on personal finances and business conditions improved but remain well below January and year-ago levels. Year-ahead inflation expectations slipped to 4.6% and long-run expectations to 3.4%, though inflation concerns remain elevated.
• US year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.6% in June 2026 from 4.8% in May, while the five-year outlook dropped to 3.4% from 3.9%, according to preliminary University of Michigan data.

Equities: 

• US — US equities closed higher on Friday, June 13, with all three major indexes gaining 0.6%–0.7% on the week. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% on Friday, the Dow added 0.7% led by financials, while the Nasdaq lagged slightly. The standout mover was SpaceX (SPCX), which surged 19% on its Nasdaq debut — the largest IPO in history at $75bn — minting Elon Musk as the world's first trillionaire. The VIX closed the week at 17.68, down 18% WoW. In after-hours/Sunday futures trading, S&P 500 futures rose ~0.8% and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed ~1.2% following confirmation of the US-Iran peace deal.
• EU — European equities climbed back toward record territory last week despite absorbing an ECB rate hike and Middle East volatility. The Stoxx 600 advanced 1.7% on the week, with Friday alone seeing a 1.9% gain led by banks. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 2.07% on the week to 6,187.63. The DAX gained 1.8% on Friday, with Deutsche Bank up 6.6%. The FTSE 100 rose 1.6% on Friday, with HSBC +3.9% and IAG +7.1%. Nokia soared 10% on a JPMorgan upgrade. Italian financials were notable, with Banca Monte dei Paschi gaining 19% on the week amid a potential bidding battle.
• Asia — Asian equities had a highly volatile week. The Hang Seng rose 1.9% on Friday, June 12, to 24,718, led by HSBC (+3.1%) and Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (+15.2%). The Kospi was the most dramatic mover, closing up 4.6% on Friday at 8,123 — though it sharply pared gains of over 6% intraday after reports emerged that Korean banks were curbing hedge fund leverage on SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. The Nikkei joined the broader rally on Friday. The Kospi has surged over 100% YTD, with gains heavily concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix. Heading into Monday's open, S&P 500 futures are up ~0.8% and Nasdaq 100 futures +1.2% on the Iran deal, which should provide a positive lead for Asian markets. STI and broader Southeast Asian markets are expected to benefit from lower oil prices. 

FX:

• USD fell against G10 peers after Trump confirmed the Iran deal on Sunday. EURUSD lifted 0.3% to 1.1597 and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined.
• Risk-sensitive currencies led gains, with AUDUSD up ~0.5% to 0.7075 and NZDUSD up ~0.5% to 0.5850 as oil slumped and risk appetite improved. The RBA is expected to pause this week after three straight hikes, with markets increasingly convinced policy rates are near their peak.
• USDJPY fell 0.3% to ~159.84, with the yen catching a bid ahead of the BOJ rate decision on Tuesday, where a 25bps hike is widely expected. Speculative short yen positions hit a nine-year high as of last week, raising intervention risk.
• The NOK is the best-performing G10 currency YTD, up 6.01% against the dollar, though it faces headwinds from the Iran deal-driven oil price decline.

Commodities:

• Oil slumps on Iran deal: Brent crude fell more than 4% to below $84/bbl in early Asian trading, with WTI near $81/bbl, after the US and Iran confirmed a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent had already closed last week at its lowest level in more than three months.
• Gold surges: Bullion jumped as much as 2.1% to above $4,300/oz after the Iran deal was announced, as markets priced in easing inflation pressures and a potential reduction in Fed rate hike expectations. Gold had been under pressure in recent weeks, with ETFs cutting holdings for multiple consecutive sessions.
• Copper holds firm: LME 3-month copper closed at $13,698/ton on Friday, June 12, up $215.50 on the session. Hedge funds trimmed net bullish copper bets to a five-week low, though structural supply tightness — with smelters facing an acute ore shortage and treatment charges turning deeply negative — continues to underpin prices.

Fixed income:

• Treasuries rally on Iran deal: US Treasury futures advanced in early Asian trading on Monday, with 2-year futures up ~3 ticks and 10-year futures up ~12 ticks. Nomura noted the deal could prompt markets to unwind Fed rate hike bets, with the yield curve expected to steepen as front-end yields fall more than long-end yields. The 10-year yield stood at 4.479% as of Sunday evening.
• FOMC dot plot in focus: Ahead of the Warsh-chaired FOMC meeting, bond traders are watching the updated dot plot closely. The Fed is expected to hold at 3.5%–3.75%, but markets have been pricing in a hike by December 2026. JPMorgan revised its year-end 10-year yield forecast to 4.7% from 4.5%, citing a robust US economy.
• Recent auction results: The Treasury sold $39bn of 10-year notes on June 10 at 4.538% and $22bn of 30-year bonds on June 11 at 5.020%, both broadly in line with pre-auction levels, suggesting demand remains adequate despite the elevated rate environment.

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